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Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017

Nature volume 558, pages 219–222 (2018)Cite this article

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Abstract

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is an important indicator of climate change and driver of sea-level rise. Here we combine satellite observations of its changing volume, flow and gravitational attraction with modelling of its surface mass balance to show that it lost 2,720 ± 1,390 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2017, which corresponds to an increase in mean sea level of 7.6 ± 3.9 millimetres (errors are one standard deviation). Over this period, ocean-driven melting has caused rates of ice loss from West Antarctica to increase from 53 ± 29 billion to 159 ± 26 billion tonnes per year; ice-shelf collapse has increased the rate of ice loss from the Antarctic Peninsula from 7 ± 13 billion to 33 ± 16 billion tonnes per year. We find large variations in and among model estimates of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment for East Antarctica, with its average rate of mass gain over the period 1992–2017 (5 ± 46 billion tonnes per year) being the least certain.

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Fig. 1: Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance.
Fig. 2: Cumulative Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change.

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Acknowledgements

This work is an outcome of the ESA–NASA Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise. A.S. was additionally supported by a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award and by the ESA Climate Change Initiative.

Reviewer information

Nature thanks R. Bell and C. Hulbe for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

The IMBIE team:

Andrew Shepherd1,*, Erik Ivins2, Eric Rignot3, Ben Smith4, Michiel van den Broeke5, Isabella Velicogna3, Pippa Whitehouse6, Kate Briggs1, Ian Joughin4, Gerhard Krinner7, Sophie Nowicki8, Tony Payne9, Ted Scambos10, Nicole Schlegel2, Geruo A3, Cécile Agosta11, Andreas Ahlstrøm12, Greg Babonis13, Valentina Barletta14, Alejandro Blazquez15, Jennifer Bonin16, Beata Csatho13, Richard Cullather17, Denis Felikson18, Xavier Fettweis11, Rene Forsberg14, Hubert Gallee7, Alex Gardner2, Lin Gilbert19, Andreas Groh20, Brian Gunter21, Edward Hanna22, Christopher Harig23, Veit Helm24, Alexander Horvath25, Martin Horwath20, Shfaqat Khan14, Kristian K. Kjeldsen12,26, Hannes Konrad1, Peter Langen27, Benoit Lecavalier28, Bryant Loomis8, Scott Luthcke8, Malcolm McMillan1, Daniele Melini29, Sebastian Mernild30,31,32, Yara Mohajerani3, Philip Moore33, Jeremie Mouginot3,7, Gorka Moyano34, Alan Muir19, Thomas Nagler35, Grace Nield6, Johan Nilsson2, Brice Noel5, Ines Otosaka1, Mark E. Pattle34, W. Richard Peltier36, Nadege Pie18, Roelof Rietbroek37, Helmut Rott35, Louise Sandberg-Sørensen14, Ingo Sasgen24, Himanshu Save18, Bernd Scheuchl3, Ernst Schrama38, Ludwig Schröder20, Ki-Weon Seo39, Sebastian Simonsen14, Tom Slater1, Giorgio Spada40, Tyler Sutterley3, Matthieu Talpe41, Lev Tarasov28, Willem Jan van de Berg5, Wouter van der Wal38, Melchior van Wessem5, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma42, David Wiese2 & Bert Wouters5

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

    Andrew Shepherd, Kate Briggs, Hannes Konrad, Malcolm McMillan, Ines Otosaka & Tom Slater

  2. NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA

    Erik Ivins, Nicole Schlegel, Alex Gardner, Johan Nilsson & David Wiese

  3. Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA

    Eric Rignot, Isabella Velicogna, Geruo A, Yara Mohajerani, Jeremie Mouginot, Bernd Scheuchl & Tyler Sutterley

  4. Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

    Ben Smith & Ian Joughin

  5. Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Michiel van den Broeke, Brice Noel, Willem Jan van de Berg, Melchior van Wessem & Bert Wouters

  6. Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UK

    Pippa Whitehouse & Grace Nield

  7. Institute of Environmental Geosciences, Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France

    Gerhard Krinner, Hubert Gallee & Jeremie Mouginot

  8. Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    Sophie Nowicki, Bryant Loomis & Scott Luthcke

  9. School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK

    Tony Payne

  10. National Snow and Ice Data Centre, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA

    Ted Scambos

  11. Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium

    Cécile Agosta & Xavier Fettweis

  12. Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Andreas Ahlstrøm & Kristian K. Kjeldsen

  13. Department of Geology, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA

    Greg Babonis & Beata Csatho

  14. DTU Space, National Space Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

    Valentina Barletta, Rene Forsberg, Shfaqat Khan, Louise Sandberg-Sørensen & Sebastian Simonsen

  15. Spatial Geophysics and Oceanography Studies Laboratory, Toulouse, France

    Alejandro Blazquez

  16. College of Marine Sciences, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA

    Jennifer Bonin

  17. Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Centre, NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    Richard Cullather

  18. Centre for Space Research, University of Texas, Austin, TX, USA

    Denis Felikson, Nadege Pie & Himanshu Save

  19. Mullard Space Science Laboratory, University College London, Holmbury St Mary, UK

    Lin Gilbert & Alan Muir

  20. Institute for Planetary Geodesy, Technische Universitat Dresden, Dresden, Germany

    Andreas Groh, Martin Horwath & Ludwig Schröder

  21. Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA

    Brian Gunter

  22. School of Geography, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, UK

    Edward Hanna

  23. Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA

    Christopher Harig

  24. Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany

    Veit Helm & Ingo Sasgen

  25. Institute of Astronomical and Physical Geodesy, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany

    Alexander Horvath

  26. Centre for GeoGenetics, Natural History Museum of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Kristian K. Kjeldsen

  27. Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Peter Langen

  28. Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. Johns, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

    Benoit Lecavalier & Lev Tarasov

  29. Section of Seismology and Tectonophysics, National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy

    Daniele Melini

  30. Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, Bergen, Norway

    Sebastian Mernild

  31. Faculty of Engineering and Science, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Sogndal, Norway

    Sebastian Mernild

  32. Direction of Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Programs, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile

    Sebastian Mernild

  33. School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK

    Philip Moore

  34. isardSAT, Barcelona, Spain

    Gorka Moyano & Mark E. Pattle

  35. ENVEO, Innsbruck, Austria

    Thomas Nagler & Helmut Rott

  36. Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

    W. Richard Peltier

  37. Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany

    Roelof Rietbroek

  38. Department of Space Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands

    Ernst Schrama & Wouter van der Wal

  39. Department of Earth Science Education, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea

    Ki-Weon Seo

  40. Institute of Physics, University of Urbino “Carlo Bo”, Urbino, Italy

    Giorgio Spada

  41. Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Centre for Astrodynamics Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA

    Matthieu Talpe

  42. Geodetic Institute, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany

    Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma

Consortia

The IMBIE team

  • Andrew Shepherd
  • , Erik Ivins
  • , Eric Rignot
  • , Ben Smith
  • , Michiel van den Broeke
  • , Isabella Velicogna
  • , Pippa Whitehouse
  • , Kate Briggs
  • , Ian Joughin
  • , Gerhard Krinner
  • , Sophie Nowicki
  • , Tony Payne
  • , Ted Scambos
  • , Nicole Schlegel
  • , Geruo A
  • , Cécile Agosta
  • , Andreas Ahlstrøm
  • , Greg Babonis
  • , Valentina Barletta
  • , Alejandro Blazquez
  • , Jennifer Bonin
  • , Beata Csatho
  • , Richard Cullather
  • , Denis Felikson
  • , Xavier Fettweis
  • , Rene Forsberg
  • , Hubert Gallee
  • , Alex Gardner
  • , Lin Gilbert
  • , Andreas Groh
  • , Brian Gunter
  • , Edward Hanna
  • , Christopher Harig
  • , Veit Helm
  • , Alexander Horvath
  • , Martin Horwath
  • , Shfaqat Khan
  • , Kristian K. Kjeldsen
  • , Hannes Konrad
  • , Peter Langen
  • , Benoit Lecavalier
  • , Bryant Loomis
  • , Scott Luthcke
  • , Malcolm McMillan
  • , Daniele Melini
  • , Sebastian Mernild
  • , Yara Mohajerani
  • , Philip Moore
  • , Jeremie Mouginot
  • , Gorka Moyano
  • , Alan Muir
  • , Thomas Nagler
  • , Grace Nield
  • , Johan Nilsson
  • , Brice Noel
  • , Ines Otosaka
  • , Mark E. Pattle
  • , W. Richard Peltier
  • , Nadege Pie
  • , Roelof Rietbroek
  • , Helmut Rott
  • , Louise Sandberg-Sørensen
  • , Ingo Sasgen
  • , Himanshu Save
  • , Bernd Scheuchl
  • , Ernst Schrama
  • , Ludwig Schröder
  • , Ki-Weon Seo
  • , Sebastian Simonsen
  • , Tom Slater
  • , Giorgio Spada
  • , Tyler Sutterley
  • , Matthieu Talpe
  • , Lev Tarasov
  • , Willem Jan van de Berg
  • , Wouter van der Wal
  • , Melchior van Wessem
  • , Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma
  • , David Wiese
  •  & Bert Wouters

Contributions

A.S. and E.I. designed and led the study. E.R., B.S., M.v.d.B., I.V. and P.W. led the input–output-method, altimetry, SMB, gravimetry and GIA experiments, respectively. G.M. and M.E.P. performed the data collation and analysis. A.S., E.I., K.B., G.K., M.H., I.J., H.K., M.M., J.M., S.N., I.O., M.E.P., T.P., E.R., I.S., T.Sc., N.S., T.Sl., B.S., I.V., M.v.W. and P.W. wrote and edited the manuscript. All authors participated in the data interpretation and commented on the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Andrew Shepherd.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

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Publisher’s note: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Fig. 1 Datasets of ice-sheet mass balance included in our assessment.

Details about the datasets are provided in Supplementary Table 1. Some datasets did not encompass all three ice sheets.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Ice-sheet drainage basins.

AIS drainage basins are determined according to the definitions of ref. 3 (left) and refs 2,19 (right). Basins that fall within the Antarctic Peninsula, West Antarctica and East Antarctica are shown in green, pink and blue, respectively. For the definition from ref. 3, the Antarctic Peninsula, West Antarctica and East Antarctica basins cover areas of 227,725 km2, 1,748,200 km2 and 9,909,800 km2, respectively. For the definition from refs 2,19, the Antarctic Peninsula, West Antarctica and East Antarctica basins cover areas of 232,950 km2, 2,039,525 km2 and 9,620,225 km2, respectively.

Extended Data Fig. 3 Temporal variations in AIS SMB.

We show time series of integrated SMB in AIS drainage regions2,19 from the MARv2.6 (blue) and RACMO2.3p2 (red) models. Solid lines are annual averages of the monthly data (dashed lines). mo, month.

Extended Data Fig. 4 Modelled GIA beneath the AIS.

a, Bedrock uplift rates in Antarctica averaged over the GIA model solutions used in this assessment. b, The corresponding standard deviations.

Extended Data Fig. 5 Individual rates of ice-sheet mass balance.

a–i, Mass-balance estimates were determined from satellite altimetry (a–c), gravimetry (d–e) and the input–output method (g–i) for the Antarctic Peninsula (a, d, g), East Antarctica (b, e, h) and West Antarctica (c, f, i). The light-grey shading shows the estimated 1σ uncertainty relative to the ensemble average. The standard error of the mean solutions, per epoch, is shown in mid-grey.

Extended Data Table 1 Spatially averaged AIS SMB
Full size table
Extended Data Table 2 GIA model details
Full size table
Extended Data Table 3 Features of mass-balance datasets included in our assessment
Full size table
Extended Data Table 4 Aggregated estimates of ice-sheet mass balance from satellite altimetry, gravimetry and the input–output method
Full size table

Supplementary information

Supplementary Table 1

This table contains details of the satellite datasets used in this study

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The IMBIE team. Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017. Nature 558, 219–222 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y

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Comments

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  1. Frank Olsen

    Can anyone explain to me how ice can melt more when the temperature drops?
    For the last 30 years, the temperature in both the air and the sea in Antarctica has fallen.
    Airtemperature: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/r...
    Seatemperature: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/r...
    If we see on the annual melting degrees we find that they have decreased a lot the last 30 years: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/r...
    while the freezing degrees have increased a little: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/r...

  2. Il Palombaro dell'Orrido Replied to Frank Olsen

    I suspect those are average temperatures.

    The average temperature in principle can remain stable or even decrease but at the same time there may be a drastic increase in the temperature of a specific sector.

    Since Antartica is a very dry continent, having extremely low temperature in, say, the inner part of the continent does not increase the ice content since there are no precipitation there (water concentration in the air is already close to 0%).

    Instead, a temperature increase in a border region may allow ice to melt and reach the ocean.

  3. Cécile Agosta Replied to Frank Olsen

    In short: it's the Antarctic dynamical ice loss which are increasing (i.e. the ice fluxes toward the ocean), and not the surface melt (i.e. the melt of the snowpack at the surface of the ice sheet, which is related to air temperature). Dynamical ice loss are attributed to changes in ocean circulation itself related to changes in atmospheric circulation.

  4. Frank Olsen Replied to Cécile Agosta

    And what should the reason be that the ice is melting "faster than ever" ?

  5. Cécile Agosta Replied to Frank Olsen

    It is attributed to changes in the atmospheric circulation (keyword: Amundsen Sea Low) which induced the advection of warm ocean waters under the floating part of the ice sheet. This caused an increase in the melt from under this floating part and as a consequence the increase in the upstream ice fluxes toward the ocean.

  6. Paul Matthews

    "the estimated GIA contribution ranges from +12 Gt yr−1 to +81 Gt yr−1; the mean value is 56 Gt yr−1."

    "Across the full 25-year survey, the average rate of mass balance of the AIS was −109 ± 56 Gt yr−1"

    So, more than half of the claimed mass loss is due to a hugely uncertain adjustment factor, based on modelling, it seems.

  7. David Ray Gillard

    Hello:

    I recently read an article that stated the southern ice cap has lost
    200billion tons of ice every year from 2012 to 2017. I am working on a solution mostly an idea right now. I do still need proof of concept. early calculations show that the atmosphere (ozone) could be restored to preindustrial in less than 15 years. My research continues... Should I have a breakthrough I would need lots of help. I'll keep working at it...

    Thank you for your time.

    Regards,

    David Ray Gillard

  8. Steen

    I wonder if an
    ice cap floats on water and thus is an iceberg, then the amount of water that
    is melted iceberg will fill exactly the same as the hollow iceberg filled in
    the ocean. This fact was formulated by a deceased "scientist", namely
    Archimedes.

    Wondering where the heat comes from melting the ice? Could it be heat from
    underwater volcanoes (chimneys) like the North Pole?

  9. Frank Olsen Replied to Steen

    Yes, there is a lot of volcanic Activity under the ice in western Antarctica.
    https://www.theguardian.com...
    But that does not Count; it is not politically correct :-)

    All melt of ice MUST come from human Activity.

  10. SchrodingersCake Replied to Steen

    The Antarctic ice cap is on Antarctica. The continent. It's mostly rock. So Archimedes would not apply in this case.

    Also, you don't seem to understand the effect that decreasing ocean salinity has on marine life. Or the effect it has on ocean currents.

    I'm scratching my head wondering what about this issue you do understand. From your post it seems like you know nothing, Jon Snow.

  11. Steen Replied to SchrodingersCake

    Dear SchrodingersCake,
    I must confess not to be so knowledgeable about the Antarctic and therefore seek knowledge of this. I
    have seen a lot about the melting of icecaps in the media, as large
    icebergs break off and float away in the ocean, presuming they do not
    float around the ocean with cliffs. Now let's have a good tone.

    When
    you cry that the wolf is coming, you must be sure it's a wolf and
    nothing else, and moreover, relate to facts and science rather than mass
    hysteria and judgmental day prophecies.

    I
    think everyone is worried about human violence on our planet, so it is
    important to keep the focus scientifically and not demagogically.

  12. SchrodingersCake Replied to Steen

    Where do you think those icebergs come from? They come from glaciers from the continent. They don't just form up at the edges over the water. If you're not extremely worried, you don't understand what's happening.

  13. Steen Replied to SchrodingersCake

    Dear SchrodingersCake,

    I'm definitely very worried and have been since I was young in the 1970s and
    was a member of the Nora Group, Greenpeace support very interested in our environmental
    issues.
    I just ask that the public debate takes place in a scientific and serious way,
    without prejudice and indications about the cause of the earth's temperatures,
    the cause of metrological phenomena, etc.

    It is as if everyone is able to figure out complex problems without having a
    professional background without studying and researching.

    The researchers who have spent the whole lifetime and probably have the best prerequisites for assessing and commenting on meltdown of the poles, no one is listening to, the media quotes the men and the street parliament in a populist mass hysteria and it all ends with a junk
    debate and junk political decisions that eventually slow down the process so important to
    dampen the development of soil pollution.

    One example is wind turbines as an alternative to fossil fuels and which would
    secure the world's energy needs.

    My post with Archimedes might be a provocation, but when we discuss as important
    an issue as human future on earth, more nuanced and subjective discussion is
    expected and the belief that only human beings influence the earth's climate
    change, I simply buy not to mention ice drilling and historical facts something completely different. There have been many Ice Age caused by volcanic eruptions etc.

    Let's continue to work for a better environment with minimal impact on humanity, but
    let's do it qualified and properly.

    Suggest to google / read the scientist “Bjorn Lomborg, President and Founder.” He contributes a very fair debate.
    http://www.copenhagenconsen...

  14. commonsense405

    "lost 2,720 ± 1,390 billion tonnes of ice ... increase in mean sea level of 7.6 ± 3.9 millimetres (errors are one standard deviation)"

    Why is one standard deviation used here, rather than the scientific standard of two?

  15. mike

    What would we rather deal with, rising sea levels or sudden crustal pole shift caused by excessive ice build up that unbalances the slight warble in earth's rotation?

  16. Wolfgang Richter

    What's about the contrary result to this study by another study?
    No problem: NASA glaciologist Jay Zwally informed any days ago, that nis new study confirms his findings in 2015 that the Antarctica is gaining mass!
    See: http://dailycaller.com/2018...

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