Extended Data Fig. 5: To decompose probabilities, the method extends well-established approaches for higher performance, shown sufficient for 213 heatwaves out of 214 events.
From: Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors
Each heatwave attributed in this analysis is shown here (coloured dots). The total probability of each event is the result from the attribution analysis. The reconstructed probability results from the decomposition of the probabilities using the three approaches (ABU in yellow, AON in blue, combined in green), then all contributions are summed up to facilitate the comparison. The event in the red box in the upper right corner is the only event for which the decomposition fails. The 95% confidence interval is shown for the combined ABU & AON (green lines) only for the sake of clarity.
