Extended Data Fig. 2: Global analysis outcomes by various tested parameters by region and sex*.

*This figure shows variation of the overall lifetime expected number of gastric cancers born between 2008 and 2017 according to changes of the model parameters. The variation could be read in terms of absolute number of cases (upper x-axis) or ratio of the lifetime expected number of gastric cancers (lower x-axis). The reference model parameters are the same as the ones assumed in the main text (that is no competitive risk between cardia (CGC) and non-cardia (NCGC) gastric cancer, median UN death rate scenario, no annual percentage change (APC) for CGC and NCGC, no changes in the current public health intervention (PHI) for gastric cancer control). Each line on the y-axis represents the specific parameter changed compared to the reference while all the other parameters remain unchanged. The tested parameters are: 1. Competing Rate: Including CGC competing rate in the NCGC burden calculation and vice and versa 2 (yes). 2. Death Rate: Changing the overall cause of death competing risk for UN lower (lwr) or upper (upr) scenario. 3. APC CGC (10 years): Applying −3%, −2%, −1%, 1%, 2% and 3% APC for 10 years to the CGC incidence rate. 4. APC CGC (20 years): Applying −3%, −2%, −1%, 1%, 2% and 3% APC for 20 years to the CGC incidence rate. 5. APC NCGC (10 years): Applying −3%, −2%, −1%, 1%, 2% and 3% APC for 10 years to the NCGC incidence rate. 6. APC NCGC (20 years): Applying −3%, −2%, −1%, 1%, 2% and 3% APC for 20 years to the NCGC incidence rate. 7. PHI Impact: Applying population-level impact of H. pylori screen-and-treat strategies by 80–100%.