Table 4 Multivariable analysis of variables associated with each transition.

From: Risk factors and transitional probability of clinical events in Korean CKD patients using the multistate model

Variable

Transition 1

(Enrollment to CVD)

Transition 2

(Enrollment to ESKD)

Transition 3

(CVD to death)

Transition 4

(ESKD to death)

Transition 5

(Enrollment to death)

HR

(95% CI)

p

HR

(95% CI)

p

HR

(95% CI)

p

HR

(95% CI)

p

HR

(95% CI)

p

Age

1.07

(1.05, 1.09)

 < 0.001

1.02

(1.01, 1.02)

 < 0.001

1.10

(1.02, 1.18)

0.017

1.12

(1.08, 1.16)

 < 0.001

1.06

(1.04, 1.09)

 < 0.001

Male

(Reference: female)

1.71

(1.17, 2.50)

0.006

1.15

(0.94, 1.41)

0.183

1.04

(0.34, 3.21)

0.948

1.56

(0.85, 2.88)

0.154

2.18

(1.14, 4.16)

0.019

BMI

1

(0.95, 1.05)

0.96

1.01

(0.98, 1.04)

0.416

0.92

(0.78, 1.08)

0.312

0.99

(0.91, 1.07)

0.726

0.98

(0.90, 1.07)

0.646

SBP

1.01

(1.00, 1.02)

0.134

1.02

(1.01, 1.03)

 < 0.001

1.00

(0.97, 1.04)

0.781

0.99

(0.97, 1.01)

0.172

1.03

(1.01, 1.04)

0.003

eGFRcreatinine

(per 10 ml/min/1.73m2 increment)

0.99

(0.98, 0.99)

 < 0.001

0.92

(0.91, 0.93)

 < 0.001

1.00

(0.98, 1.02)

0.83

0.98

(0.96, 1.01)

0.246

0.98

(0.97, 0.99)

0.001

log(FGF-23 + 1)

1.07

(0.95, 1.20)

0.253

1.42

(1.32, 1.53)

 < 0.001

0.94

(0.70, 1.27)

0.693

0.93

(0.77, 1.13)

0.464

1.25

(1.02, 1.52)

0.032

log(CRP)

1.13

(1.00, 1.28)

0.044

1.09

(1.01, 1.17)

0.022

0.92

(0.65, 1.31)

0.653

1.24

(1.02, 1.50)

0.028

1.22

(1.01, 1.48)

0.04

Spot protein-to-creatinine ratio

1.15

(1.06, 1.25)

0.001

1.41 (1.36, 1.46)

 < 0.001

1.06

(0.87, 1.30)

0.567

0.88

(0.77, 1.00)

0.057

1.28

(1.15, 1.43)

 < 0.001

Current or former

smoker

(Reference: never)

1.58

(1.12, 2.24)

0.01

1.27

(1.04, 1.54)

0.002

1.03

(0.40, 2.67)

0.951

1.24

(0.72, 2.14)

0.444

1.97

(1.11, 3.49)

0.02

Cardiovascular

disease history

4.56

(3.04, 6.84)

 < 0.001

1.84

(1.33, 2.54)

 < 0.001

1.06

(0.38, 2.99)

0.907

2.69

(1.37, 5.26)

0.004

4.33

(2.21, 8.49)

 < 0.001

CKD subtype

(Reference: GN)

          

  Diabetes mellitus

4.71

(2.97, 7.49)

 < 0.001

3.53

(2.78, 4.48)

 < 0.001

1.34

(0.42, 4.24)

0.623

1.47

(0.74, 2.92)

0.274

7.79

(3.10, 19.56)

 < 0.001

  Hypertension

2.37

(1.41, 3.97)

 < 0.001

1.02

(0.74, 1.39)

0.912

0.669

(0.15, 3.07)

0.622

1.18

(0.47, 3.01)

0.725

4.83

(1.29, 9.47)

0.014

  Polycystic kidney disease

1.2

(0.66, 2.21)

0.551

0.85

(0.62, 1.18)

0.329

- **

- **

1.40

(0.55, 3.59)

0.479

4.43

(1.60, 12.25)

0.004

  1. *HR = Hazard ratio, CI = Confidence interval, BMI = Body mass index, SBP = Systolic blood pressure, eGFRcreatinine = Estimated glomerular filtration rate calculated using the 2009 CKD-EPI creatinine equation, FGF-23 = Fibroblast growth factor-23, CRP = C-reactive protein, GN = Glomerulonephritis.
  2. **No polycystic kidney disease patient in Transition 3.