Table 12 Experimental results after the COVID-19 outbreak.

From: Time series transformer for tourism demand forecasting

Model

Metric

Dataset

Forecast horizon

Jiuzhaigou Valley

Siguniang Mountain

1

7

15

30

1

7

15

(seasonal) Naive

MAE

931.44

2629.8

3783.23

5941.68

856.24

2321.94

2656.38

RMSE

1525.44

4307.9

5960.64

8213.8

1968.83

4981.19

5399.93

MAPE (%)

15.44

79.62

158.29

279.48

36.85

139

139.69

ARIMA

MAE

1122.65

2298.61

3377.97

5634.52

N/A*

N/A

N/A

RMSE

1698.36

3846.02

5410.11

7843.41

N/A

N/A

N/A

MAPE (%)

24.19

75.82

140.75

265.9

N/A

N/A

N/A

ARIMAX

MAE

975.3

1879.27

2960.17

5274.97

N/A

N/A

N/A

RMSE

1559.65

3278.31

5061.97

7748.54

N/A

N/A

N/A

MAPE (%)

17.27

46.41

115.16

248.39

N/A

N/A

N/A

SARIMA

MAE

1320.57

2933.42

4749.65

8607.75

N/A

N/A

N/A

RMSE

1898.4

4322.36

7090.13

12919.15

N/A

N/A

N/A

MAPE (%)

31.74

93.19

197.88

405.28

N/A

N/A

N/A

SARIMAX

MAE

1115.34

2347.89

3657.57

6744.85

N/A

N/A

N/A

RMSE

1690.36

3880.74

5813.64

9311.22

N/A

N/A

N/A

MAPE (%)

24.34

70.51

151.14

321.9

N/A

N/A

N/A

SVR

MAE

2120.89

2233.41

3450.93

5333.5

954.3

1385.07

1645.28

RMSE

2824.22

3021.95

4294.28

6260.77

2343.19

3531.65

3947.97

MAPE (%)

34.2

63.9

140.4

191.72

37.37

39.78

42.82

k-NN

MAE

1721.96

3051.29

4892.39

6019.8

987.23

1391

1637.31

RMSE

2613.52

4336.89

5735.04

7001.36

2450.47

3221.62

3838.12

MAPE (%)

26.91

100.84

160.68

212.61

40.97

54.33

52.51

ANN

MAE

1787.32

2297.18

3926.82

5707.52

1101.33

1303.77

1728.89

RMSE

2525.77

3225.31

4849.23

6747.46

3034.57

2966.71

3723.1

MAPE (%)

25.96

64.29

159.47

222.33

32.52

52.69

65.16

LSTM

MAE

1447.09

2507.12

2965.13

4997.53

632.34

1228.02

1563.52

RMSE

2059.8

3379.62

4606.84

6396.09

1378.77

2903.12

3698.02

MAPE (%)

21.13

38.54

121.89

210.53

29.19

46.61

47.89

Tsformer

MAE

918.49

1993.82

3034.19

4623.03

577.38

1084.37

1425.51

RMSE

1447.37

2896.33

4292.25

5884.25

1098.06

2821.28

3567.69

MAPE (%)

15.5

38.06

110.18

190.45

30.35

34.16

42.18

  1. * N/A denotes that the result is not applicable. Since the tourism demand from 15 January 2021 to 9 February 2021 in Siguniang Mountain is unavailable and continuous data points are required by the ARIMA series to fit and predict, the ARIMA series is not applicable for a fair comparison of the Siguniang Mountain dataset.
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