Fig. 4

Gross relative contribution (pie charts, top row) and net relative contribution (bar charts, bottom row) of model components at Paumalū Beach for the validation period (left, 2019–2023), and forecast periods ending in 2050 (middle) and 2100 (right). Colors represent the different model components: long-term linear change (LTR, green), Recession due to SLR (BRU, maroon)^36,44,45,46, alongshore transport (LST, pink)³⁵, and cross-shore, short term wave change (STW, blue)^31,47. In the bar plots, bar heights represent the median net shoreline change contribution over all transects during a set ten-year time period centered around 2023, 2050, and 2100 respectively, and whiskers represent the 20th and 80th percentiles, within which 60% of the transect values are found. Figure created in Matlab (R2023b).