Table 1 Variable definition.

Dependent variable

EDP

In our paper, the model proposed by Bharath and Shumway (2008) is used to estimate the probability of default (EDP) as a proxy variable for default risk. We take the following steps to calculate the default risk:

\({{\rm{DD}}}_{{\rm{i}},{\rm{t}}}=\frac{\log \left(\frac{{{Equity}}_{i,t}\,+\,{{Debt}}_{i,t}}{{{Debt}}_{i,t}}\right)+\left({r}_{{it}-1}-\frac{{{\sigma }^{2}}_{{Vi},t}}{2}\right)\times {T}_{i,t}}{{\sigma }_{{Vi},t}\times \sqrt{{T}_{i,t}}}\) (1)

Among them, DD_i,t represents the default distance; Equityit represents the total market value of the company, which is the product of the total number of shares issued and the market price at the end of the year; Debt_i,t is the face value of the company’s debts, which is the sum of one-half of the company’s short-term liabilities at the end of the year and long-term liabilities at the end of the year; r_i,t-1 is the annual rate of return of the company with a lag of one year, obtained from the company’s monthly stock rate of return in the previous year; Tit is set as 1 year in the formula; σ_Vi,t is the estimated amount of volatility of the company’s assets, calculated by σ_Eit. σ_Eit is the volatility of stock returns, which is obtained by taking the standard deviation of the company’s monthly return data in the previous year. σ_Vi,t is calculated as follows:

\({{\rm{\sigma }}}_{{\rm{Vi,t}}}=\frac{{{Equity}}_{i,t}}{{Equity}_{it}\,+\,{Debt_{i,t}}}\times {\sigma }_{Ei,t}+\frac{{Debt}_{i,t}}{{{Equity}}_{i,t}\,+\,{{Debt}}_{i,t}}\times ({0.05+0.25\times \sigma }_{Ei,t})\) (2)

On the basis of formula (1) and formula (2), we can calculate the default risk distance DD_it, and then use the standard cumulative normal distribution function Normal(.) to calculate the enterprise default probability, as shown in formula (3):

EDP_i,t = Normal(−DD_i,t) (3)

Independent variable

Blockchain

Whether the enterprise adopts blockchain technology, if yes, take 1, otherwise take 0.

Control variables

Size

The natural logarithm of the total assets at the end of the year.

Growth

Operating Income Growth Rate.

Lev

Total liabilities at the end of the year divided by total assets.

Cash

The ratio of (monetary funds + cash equivalents) / total assets.

Roa

Ratio of net profit to total assets.

Fixed

The ratio of net fixed assets at the end of the year to the total assets of the year.

Dual

Separation of the rights.

Firmage

Take the natural logarithm of the age of the company.

Hold1

The ownership of the largest shareholder.

Soe

Whether the firm is a stated-owned enterprise, 1 for SOE and 0 for others.