Fig. 4: Comparison of seasonal trend errors for SST indices for re-forecasts and historical simulations.
From: Climate model trend errors are evident in seasonal forecasts at short leads
Seasonal trend error for a Equatorial Pacific b Atlantic Niño c Gulf Stream d Southern Ocean e Niño Upwelling and f North Indian Ocean SST (regions shown on Fig. 3). For each verification season, the first column shows the seasonal re-forecast trend error for each individual model and the re-forecast trend error for the multi-model mean, the second column shows the CMIP6 model trend error distribution and the third column shows two other observations-based datasets, relative to ERA5. As in Fig. 3, these are averaged for two-season leads for the re-forecasts. Units are trend error per year as a percentage of the ERA5 index standard deviation. Statistical significance is indicated by darker symbols with a black outline.
