Fig. 8: Comparison of seasonal trend errors for precipitation indices for re-forecasts and historical simulations.
From: Climate model trend errors are evident in seasonal forecasts at short leads
Seasonal precipitation trend error for a Western US b Southeast US c Western Asia d Southeast Asia and e Equatorial East Africa (MAM), Southern Africa (MAM), Equatorial West Africa (JJA) Northeast Africa (JJA) and Equatorial Central Africa (SON) (regions shown on Fig. 7). For each verification season, the first column shows the re-forecast trend error for each individual model and the re-forecast trend error for the multi-model mean, the second column shows the CMIP6 model trend error distribution and the third column shows another observations-based dataset, relative to GPCP. As in Fig. 7, these are averaged for two-season leads for the re-forecasts. Units are trend error per year as a percentage of the GPCP index standard deviation. Statistical significance is indicated by darker symbols with a black outline.
