Fig. 1: Trajectory maps for DYN and STAT Real-Time Forecasts.

Dynamical (DYN: a, b) and statistical (STAT: c, d) forecasts for the Niño3.4 SST anomaly for overlapping 3-month periods from Feb-2002 to Feb-2023 initializations (253 real-time forecasts) and the corresponding observations. The observations are shown by the black line, while the forecasts are shown by the blue line. The verifying observed data is from the ERSSTv5.