Fig. 7: Skill of of real-time STAT and DYN forecasts for individual El Niño and La Niña episodes. | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

Fig. 7: Skill of of real-time STAT and DYN forecasts for individual El Niño and La Niña episodes.

From: Real-time ENSO forecast skill evaluated over the last two decades, with focus on the onset of ENSO events

Fig. 7

Squared error skill score (SESS), in DYN and STAT forecasts for warm (a, b) and cold (c, d) episodes onset from Lead 1 to 9. A SESS value of 1 represents a perfect forecast, aligning precisely with the observed value and indicating a high level of forecast skill. SESS values less than 1 indicate that the forecasts have some level of skill, although it is not perfect. A negative SESS values indicate poorer forecast performance. The plotted data illustrates that the forecast skill tends to be lower for cold episodes when compared to warm episodes onset. Moreover, the analysis highlights that DYN forecasts consistently demonstrate higher skill levels than STAT forecasts for both warm and cold episodes onset. The lines connecting events serve as visual aids, emphasizing and clarifying the SESS values represented by markers.

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