Fig. 4: Trends of meteorological and hydrological variables over 1960–2018 in the Kumalak River catchment.

a Annual average maximum temperature at the Tien-Shan station. b Pearson correlation between annual average maximum temperature and annual average streamflow. c, d Annual total precipitation at Koilu and Uc-Koskon stations, respectively. e Annual average streamflow at the Xiehela outlet. f–h Annual snowmelt, glacier meltwater, and rainfall derived from the SWAT-Glacier model. j–l Annual snowmelt, glacier meltwater, and rainfall from the degree–day factor model. i, m Day of the year for AMF and AMFSp events, respectively. Dashed lines represent trend slopes, with associated p-values indicating statistical significance: typically, p < 0.01 indicates strong significance, p < 0.05 suggests statistical significance, and p > 0.05 denotes non-significance.