Table 1 Sub-seasonal Soil Moisture Forecast Skill (ACC) in CESM2-S2S Experiments for JJA and DJF Seasons

Exp No.	Experiment ID	Sub-seasonal Soil Moisture Forecast Skill (Week 3 to 4), JJA
Exp No.	Experiment ID	NEON # 6	NEON # 7	NEON # 8	NEON # 9	NEON # 10	NEON # 11	conUS
1	Control	0.41	0.48	0.56	0.35	0.31	0.50	0.41
2	climoATM	0.38	0.45	0.51	0.35	0.26	0.46	0.37
3	climoLND	0.24	0.22	0.30	0.10	0.15	0.21	0.17
4	climoOCN	0.41	0.47	0.57	0.35	0.31	0.48	0.41
5	climoOCNclimoLND	0.24	0.24	0.38	0.02	0.25	0.29	0.20
6	climoOCNclimoATM	0.38	0.45	0.51	0.35	0.28	0.47	0.38
7	climoATMclimoLND	−0.11	0.04	−0.01	−0.08	−0.07	−0.05	−0.02
8	climoALL	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.05	−0.05	−0.02	−0.01

Exp No.	Experiment ID	Sub-seasonal Soil Moisture Forecast Skill (Week 3–4), DJF
Exp No.	Experiment ID	NEON # 6	NEON # 7	NEON # 8	NEON # 9	NEON # 10	NEON # 11	conUS
1	Control	0.40	0.54	0.55	0.41	0.57	0.57	0.44
2	climoATM	0.39	0.52	0.48	0.39	0.54	0.51	0.40
3	climoLND	0.03	0.13	0.32	−0.01	0.22	0.44	0.21
4	climoOCN	0.41	0.54	0.53	0.40	0.58	0.58	0.43
5	climoOCNclimoLND	0.03	0.08	0.25	−0.03	0.20	0.38	0.18
6	climoOCNclimoATM	0.39	0.53	0.44	0.40	0.53	0.49	0.39
7	climoATMclimoLND	0.01	0.01	0.18	0.02	0.04	0.30	0.09
8	climoALL	0.05	0.00	−0.01	−0.09	−0.01	0.04	0.00

This table shows the sub-seasonal soil moisture forecast skill (Anomaly Correlation Coefficient, ACC) for week 3-4 forecasts in the Control experiment and seven sensitivity experiments of CESM2. Each experiment’s performance is shown separately for six agriculturally dominated ecoclimatic regions (NEON # 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11) and the entire continental US (conUS) for the summer (June- July- August, JJA) and winter (December- January- February, DJF) seasons. Ecoclimatic region numbers are shown in Fig. 2a. Statistically significant ACC values at the 95% confidence level are highlighted in bold font.

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