The dynamics of cryospheric elements have profoundly shaped Earth’s climate system, landscapes, geomorphology, and the living conditions of various organisms. These elements are highly sensitive to climate warming and increasing human activities. This Collection focused on changes in the vulnerable cryosphere near tipping points and their potential impacts on Earth’s future. It was launched in December 2023 and concluded in October 2024. The Collection received 59 submissions, of which 31 were published. These articles are grouped into four topic sections: Climate warming in the cryosphere (5), Impacts of cryospheric change (9), Mechanisms of cryosphere variation (12), and Variations in cryospheric elements (5). In total, the Collection brought together 161 authors from 20 countries (Fig. 1).

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Geographic distribution and corresponding bar chart of author contributions by c=country in the Collection.

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Accelerating Climate Warming Patterns in Cryospheric Regions

A category-5 atmospheric river struck the western coast of Chile on 7 February 2022, bringing intense winds and heavy rainfall1. This event may compromise the stability of ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula, with potential consequences ranging from accelerated regional ice mass loss to disruptions in sensitive ecosystems at both local and global scale. Bracegirdle et al.2 examined the multivariate evolution of extreme seasons over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean during the 20th and 21st centuries under medium-to-high radiative forcing scenarios. Their findings highlight substantial differences between changes in the background mean climate and shifts in extreme seasons—specifically at the 10th and 90th percentiles. Blau et al.3 reported a global mean decline of 7.79% in persistent snow cover over the past 44 years, noting that regional trends show heterogeneous and non-linear responses to varying regional warming rates. Zhang et al.4 found a significant increase in heatwave magnitude since the start of the 21st century, particularly during autumn, with hotspots shifting toward the northwestern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) from 1979–2000 to 2001–2022. Li et al.5 projected that future warming will enhance the sensitivity of winter and spring snowfall to climate change, while summer and autumn snowfall will become less responsive in high-mountain Asia. In this region, temperature is the dominant factor driving snowfall loss, whereas relative humidity plays a mitigating roll.

Cascading Impacts of Cryospheric Changes on Global Systems

Luo et al.6 projected future changes in the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) circulation under global warming, identifying a weakening of low-level westerly winds closely linked to enhanced latent heating over the QTP. Liu et al.7 explored the impact of increased evaporation from melting Arctic sea ice on cold-season land precipitation trends, revealing a significant rise in moisture contributions from Arctic marginal seas to continental precipitation. Dong et al.8 analyzed the synergistic effects of Arctic and QTP amplification on heatwaves in the Yangtze River Basin, demonstrating that interannual variability in summer heatwaves is strongly influenced by changes in these amplification patterns.

Chen et al.9 assessed the risk of glacial lake outburst floods in the Central Asian Tianshan Mountains by analyzing spatiotemporal changes in glacial lakes and evaluating associated risk levels under present and future conditions. Liu and Zhu10 projected that a major reduction in Antarctic sea ice would increase the frequency of strong El Niño events. Liang et al.11 applied deep learning to identify the primary flood drivers in an alpine glacierized catchment in the Tianshan region, highlighting the combined influence of glacier meltwater, snowmelt, and rainfall. Ding et al.12 evaluated glacier collapse risk in the southeastern QTP basin by integrating machine learning with glacier analysis, identifying zones with potential collapse hazards.

Li et al.13 conducted a comprehensive assessment of heatwave trends, showing that both the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are increasing, with seasonal differences—summer heatwaves becoming more frequent and winter ones more intense. These patterns suggest heightened stress on infrastructure, particularly in regions with high geohazard potential, where seasonal vulnerabilities also vary. Wang et al.14 used a hydrological model to demonstrate that rising temperatures reduce water inflow to Selin Co, the largest lake on the Tibetan Plateau, whereas increased precipitation enhances inflow. These opposing effects illustrate the challenges of predicting future water resources in such basins.

Together, these studies illustrate the widespread and interconnected effects of cryospheric changes on global systems. They emphasize the complex linkages among phenomena such as sea ice loss, atmospheric circulation shifts, monsoon dynamics, and regional warming, and their cascading consequences for precipitation patterns, extreme events, and cryosphere-related hazards. Gaining deeper insight into these interactions is essential for informing effective climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Underlying Mechanisms of Driving Cryospheric Transformation

Shi et al.15 examined the drivers of winter Arctic sea-ice concentration variability in the Eurasian Arctic and identified two dominant modes: a decadal dipole mode linked to ocean heat transport and an interannual monopole mode associated with atmospheric circulation patterns. Li et al.16 quantified the impact of vegetation greening on soil thermal regimes on the QTP, showing that greening leads to a notable warming effect on shallow annual soil temperatures. Wang et al.17 introduced new indices to describe snow cover temporal discontinuity on the QTP, finding that the number of continuous snow cover days better captures snow cover variability than traditional snow cover day counts.

Chelluboyina et al.18 studied the role of dark brown carbon from wildfires as a snow radiative forcing agent, demonstrating that it enhances snow warming more significantly than black carbon alone. Zhu et al.19 analyzed the impact of the 2022 summer heatwave on permafrost in central QTP, reporting record-high active layer thickness and mean annual ground temperatures. Yu et al.20 investigated the influence of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool on autumn sea ice loss in northeastern Canada, suggesting that warming in this region contributes to sea ice decline through atmospheric teleconnection.

Fernández et al.21 assessed the potential of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) to influence Andean glacier mass balance. Their results suggest that while SRM can alter interannual variability, it cannot prevent continued mass loss. Zhu and Wu22 explored the influence of the Indian Summer Monsoon on Arctic sea ice variability, revealing that monsoon rainfall affects Arctic sea ice through barotropic anomalous circulation patterns. Huai et al.23 analyzed projected changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation and their effects on Greenland precipitation. They found that a northeastward shift of the Icelandic Low leads to a drying signal in southeast Greenland under future warming scenario.

Niu et al.24 investigated the development of the Eurasian ice sheet complex following Marine Isotope Stage 3 and highlighted the key role of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in supporting sufficient snow and ice accumulation for ice sheet growth. Ye et al.25 provided a comprehensive synthesis of current understanding on how Arctic sea ice and snow cover changes influence extreme weather events. They emphasized the need for improved observations, integrated modeling approaches, and more attention to the complex interactions between cryospheric elements and broader climate patterns. Wang et al.26 showed that the rare three-year La Niña event (2021–2023) had significant impacts on the Antarctic surface climate, including record-low sea ice and ice sheet mass gain. These changes were linked to a pronounced southward shift of the Ferrel Cell and stronger tropical–Antarctic teleconnections compared to a previous similar event.

Together, these studies deepen our understanding of the complex mechanisms driving cryospheric change worldwide. They examine processes ranging from sea ice variability and snow cover discontinuity to permafrost response, glacier dynamics under geoengineering scenarios, and the effects of large-scale atmospheric patterns. The findings underscore the intricate, interconnected nature of cryospheric responses to climate change and the importance of accounting for both local and remote drivers.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Key Cryospheric Elements

Song et al.27 modeled the spatial and temporal evolution of hydrothermal conditions in the upper Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2019, driven by climate and vegetation changes. Their findings show increasing soil temperatures and ongoing permafrost degradation in the region over the past six decades. Kuttippurath et al.28 analyzed long-term trends in snow depth and precipitation across the Third Pole from 1980 to 2020, revealing a significant increase in total precipitation over the central and eastern regions during the South Asian summer monsoon.

Chen et al.29 found that May sea-ice loss in the Kara Sea can enhance Indian Ocean warming-induced Meiyu-Baiu rainfall. The study shows that sea-ice loss not only strengthens convective activity but also tends to prolong the Meiyu-Baiu rainy season. Chang et al.30 examined the link between seasonal surface deformation and active layer thickness in permafrost areas of the QTP. They observed an overall negative correlation between the two, which became stronger in areas with sparse vegetation and drier soils.

Kooloth et al.31 assessed the feasibility of reversing polar sea-ice loss using an idealized energy balance model. Their results indicate that while reversal is theoretically possible, the associated cost rises sharply after the system crosses a tipping point, with optimal intervention concentrated in polar regions. Li et al.5 used a continuous piecewise linear regression model to classify the Third Pole into four precipitation regimes. Their projections suggest that warming will increase the sensitivity of winter and spring snowfall to climate change, while reducing the sensitivity of summer and autumn snowfall.

Together, these studies explore multiple facets of cryospheric dynamics—including permafrost degradation, snow and precipitation trends, sea-ice loss impacts, and cryosphere–hydrosphere interactions. The results emphasize the diverse and regionally specific ways in which cryospheric elements are responding to climate change. Understanding these complex responses is key to predicting broader impacts on hydrological systems, regional climate variability, and ecological processes.