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Trade and dietary preferences can determine micronutrient security in the United Kingdom

Nature Food volume 3, pages 512–522 (2022)Cite this article

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Abstract

Food production, dietary choices, climate change, trade tariffs and future responses to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are some of the factors affecting global food security. Here we examine how micronutrient security has varied in the United Kingdom from 1961 to 2017, before Brexit, taking supply and demand driver changes into account. We also introduce future scenarios to see how a more plant-based diet and/or differing trade arrangement post-European Union exit and COVID-19 pandemic could affect the supply of nutrients. Results show that trading agreements have affected several key micronutrients during the past 60 years and are likely to be influential in a post-Brexit United Kingdom. Changes in dietary patterns, which influence how much animal- and plant-based products are consumed, have also affected micronutrient security and are likely to do so in the future with increased interest in consuming a more plant-based diet.

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Fig. 1: Sources of micronutrients in 2016r.
Fig. 2: Sources of micronutrients from 1961 to 2017.
Fig. 3: Country of origin of micronutrients from imported fruits and vegetables.
Fig. 4: Current position for UK micronutrients in a scenario map.

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Data availability

Source data (HMRC, FAO, McCance and Widdowson) are publicly available and are alternatively available on request from the corresponding authors. Output data derived from MacDiarmid et al. and OTS can be found in Supplementary Data 1.

Code availability

Part of the data analysis was conducted using the R programming language. Further analysis was done in Excel (Supplementary Data 1). R files are available on request from the corresponding authors.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the FSA for access to its data trade visualization app. G.M.P. thanks the FSA for discussions on the future of the UK food system and colleagues in the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) research community for discussions on food systems and scenario analysis.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK

    Guy Matthew Poppy, Joseph James Baverstock-Poppy & Jenny Baverstock

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  1. Guy Matthew Poppy
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Contributions

G.M.P., J.B. and J.J.B.-P. jointly designed the study and interpreted the results. J.J.B.-P. conducted the analysis. G.M.P. and J.B. wrote the manuscript with inputs from J.J.B.-P. G.M.P., J.B. and J.J.B.-P. reviewed and edited the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Guy Matthew Poppy.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Nature Food thanks David Salt and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Extended data

Extended Data Fig. 1 Change in micronutrient security between time periods during 1961–2017.

% Changes in key micronutrient security for a range of time periods illustrating changes before joining the EU, immediately after joining the EU and other comparisons from the period 1961–2017. The following micronutrients are plotted: a) vitamin A; b) vitamin C; c) Iron; d) Calcium and e) Zinc.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Micronutrient security scenario plots from 1961–2017.

Micronutrient security from 1961–2017 is plotted on a scenario map where domestic/import and animal/plant are the two uncertainty axes. The following micronutrients are plotted: a) vitamin A; b) vitamin C; c) Iron; d) Calcium and e) Zinc.

Supplementary information

Supplementary information

Codes illustrating the matching of CoFID and HMRC codes.

Supplementary Data

Supplementary data 1: spreadsheet-based data and figures presenting summary data of micronutrient supply and further illustration of nature of the supply source.

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Poppy, G.M., Baverstock-Poppy, J.J. & Baverstock, J. Trade and dietary preferences can determine micronutrient security in the United Kingdom. Nat Food 3, 512–522 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00538-3

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