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Aquaculture carrying capacity estimates show that major African lakes and marine waters could sustainably produce 10–11 Mt of fish per year

Nature Food volume 6, pages 446–455 (2025)Cite this article

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Abstract

Aquaculture carrying capacity (CC) can be used to guide sustainable aquaculture development over the long term through the regenerative power of the environment. In this study, a model has been developed to estimate CC by combining marine spatial planning for physical CC, management criteria for production CC, eutrophication and pathogen risk for ecological CC, and social acceptance based on legislative and management criteria. The estimates of CC for major African freshwater lakes and the marine exclusive economic zones of Africa indicate that 10–11 Mt of fish could be produced annually while preserving ecosystem goods and services, potentially increasing fish consumption by the population of the African continent by 7 kg per capita per year (an increase of 70%). Supply-side forecasts and demand-side estimates can support policymakers in defining targets for aquaculture expansion that avoid ecological, economic and social tipping points.

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Fig. 1: AQRATE framework for integrated assessment of CC.
Fig. 2: Application of AQRATE to the Kenyan EEZ of Lake Victoria.
Fig. 3: The final results of AQRATE application to the Lake Victoria case study.
Fig. 4: Results for AQRATE upscaling to the whole of Africa.

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Data availability

All data used for the carrying capacity calculations are provided in the Supplementary Information and the spreadsheet model available at https://gitlab.com/nature-food/aqrate-calculation/-/blob/b77243d83cee8c8841b01865e439c2541736e499/AQRATE_calculation_template.xlsx.

Code availability

The equations used to determine carrying capacity can be implemented in simple spreadsheets, making the approach a good alternative to the development of complex computer code. A full spreadsheet model illustrating the application of AQRATE to one of the case studies is available at https://gitlab.com/nature-food/aqrate-calculation/-/blob/b77243d83cee8c8841b01865e439c2541736e499/AQRATE_calculation_template.xlsx.

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Acknowledgements

I thank the Walton Family Foundation, Gatsby Africa and the World Bank Group, as well as a number of EU Horizon 2020 projects for providing the context and creating the need for this framework. I am indebted to D. Gomes and A. van Oostenrijk for GIS analysis and mapping, to I. Gardner for comments on pathogen modelling and connectivity, to A. Fernandes for figure design and to the many colleagues whose research over the past decades has laid the foundation for the development of this work, with a special tribute to the late J. Grant.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Longline Environment, London, UK

    Joao G. Ferreira

  2. DCEA, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa (NOVA), Monte de Caparica, Portugal

    Joao G. Ferreira

Authors
  1. Joao G. Ferreira
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Contributions

J.G.F. conceptualized the AQRATE integrated carrying capacity framework and respective model equations, performed the calculations, developed the spreadsheet model and wrote the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Joao G. Ferreira.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Peer review information

Nature Food thanks Yuan-Wei Du, Dapeng Liu and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Extended data

Extended Data Fig. 1 Mapping methodology Lake Victoria.

Methodology for mapping suitable areas for aquaculture in Lake Victoria.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Constraint map methodology.

Methodology for the generation of the constraint maps.

Extended Data Fig. 3 Zoning methodology.

Methodology for zoning of environmental and socio-economic factors.

Extended Data Fig. 4 Site selection methodology.

Methodology for site selection maps in Lake Victoria.

Extended Data Fig. 5 MSP results Lake Victoria.

Results for physical carrying capacity in Lake Victoria: top left: socioeconomic suitability for Nile Tilapia offshore aquaculture; top right: spatial constraints to Tilapia cage aquaculture in Lake Victoria; bottom left: spatial mapping of activities and infrastructure in Busia county, Lake Victoria; bottom right: final map of MSP, or Physical CC, for the Kenyan EEZ of Lake Victoria.

Extended Data Table 1 GIS MSP Lake Victoria areas and suitability
Full size table
Extended Data Table 2 GIS MSP Arabian Sea areas and suitability
Full size table
Extended Data Table 3 AQRATE sensitivity analysis
Full size table
Extended Data Table 4 Suitability scores MSP
Full size table
Extended Data Table 5 Reclassification MSP
Full size table

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary text and equations.

Reporting Summary

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Ferreira, J.G. Aquaculture carrying capacity estimates show that major African lakes and marine waters could sustainably produce 10–11 Mt of fish per year. Nat Food 6, 446–455 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01114-1

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