Abstract
Agricultural intensification produces indirect emissions beyond ammonia volatilization from activities such as machinery usage, food processing, transportation, storage and energy inputs. Here we integrate an input–output analysis with air quality modelling approaches, showing that attributable mortality from indirect emissions has risen sixfold in China over the past 37 years. Indirect emissions now account for one-quarter of air pollution-related attributable mortality associated with food consumption. We find a marked redistribution of the indirect health burden, with low-income groups experiencing an additional 58% attributable deaths compared with their expected food consumption burdens, which were initially associated with the food consumption of high-income groups. Targeted strategies using abatement approaches could halve the indirect health burden, thereby mitigating the environmental impact of food consumption amid agricultural intensification.
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Data availability
The data that support the findings of this study are available within the paper and the Supplementary Information. Population and per capita income data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China are available at http://data.stats.gov.cn/. Multi-year Input–output tables for China are provided by the Chinese Input–Output Association and are available at http://cioa.ruc.edu.cn/zlxz/trccb/7d9453899536434a9004d2db40e4bf6b.htm. Source data are provided with this paper. These data are also available via Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11070822 (ref. 50).
Code availability
Python 3.8 was used in conducting the Environmental Extended Input–Output Analysis and subsequent data analysis. The source codes used in this research are available via Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11070822 (ref. 50).
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Acknowledgements
H.S. acknowledges funding from the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China (2023YFE0112901) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42192512 and 42475108). F.Z. acknowledges funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42225102). L. Zheng acknowledges funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (424B2039). H.S. acknowledges funding from the Shenzhen Science and Technology Program (KQTD20240729102048052, JCYJ20241202152804007 and JCYJ20220818100611024). X.Y., T.-M.F. and H.S. acknowledge funding from the Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Precision Measurement and Early Warning Technology for Urban Environmental Health Risks (ZDSYS20220606100604008). C.W. acknowledges technical support from Southern University of Science and Technology Core Research Facilities. H.S. acknowledges support from the Center for Computational Science and Engineering at Southern University of Science and Technology, as well as funding from the High-level University Special Fund (G03050K001).
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H.S., J.M., P.H. and F.Z. conceived and initiated the study. L. Zheng and W.A. developed and analysed the emission inventory and the related health burden datasets. Y.C., P.G., J.H., Y.Z., J.L., W.L. and Y.G. collected and processed the supporting data for the mitigation schemes. P.X., C.W., J.Y. and L. Zhu assisted in developing the integrated model framework. L. Zheng drafted the paper, with critical input from G.S., T.-M.F. and X.Y., who participated in the result discussions. H.S., F.Z., J.M., P.H., S.Z. and A.H. contributed valuable critical revisions.
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Zheng, L., Adalibieke, W., Zhou, F. et al. Indirect emissions contribute a quarter of air pollution-related health burden of food systems in China. Nat Food 6, 766–776 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01193-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01193-0
