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China’s animal-protein-rich diets are increasingly reliant on Brazil’s land and water resources

Nature Food (2025)Cite this article

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Abstract

China’s shift towards greater consumption of animal proteins drove substantial changes in global agricultural dynamics and particularly affected Brazil, a leading exporter of animal feed proteins. Here we examine the environmental consequences of the Sino-Brazilian soybean trade by focusing on land and water resources and the associated deforestation risk. We estimate that Brazil supplies 10% of total protein and 24–29% of animal proteins in the Chinese diet. China’s reliance on Brazilian soybeans to feed its livestock corresponded to 17.8 Mha of virtually imported Brazilian land in 2020. Irrigation is minimal, while rainwater represents an important share of virtual water trade. Although direct deforestation linked to soybean production decreased, indirect deforestation persists and soybean cultivation keeps expanding—often displacing other land uses. These findings underscore the complex interplay between global dietary shifts and environmental burdens. China’s increasing demand for animal proteins drives Brazil’s agricultural expansion and exacerbates environmental pressures in vulnerable ecosystems.

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Fig. 1: Spatiotemporal dynamics of soybean production and export in Brazil from 2004 to 2020.
Fig. 2: Soybean supply and trade.
Fig. 3: Livestock and soybean supply.
Fig. 4: Local and virtual land use for soybean production in Brazil and the importing partners.
Fig. 5: Local and virtual water use for soybean production in Brazil and the importing partners.
Fig. 6: Soybean, deforestation and the main players.
Fig. 7: Protein analysis between China and Brazil.

Data availability

All input data used in this study were retrieved from publicly available sources cited in the paper (for example, Trase29,60, FAOSTAT2, ComexStat74, Chiarelli et al.61). Intermediate analyses that are not included in the text or in Supplementary Information are available from the corresponding author upon request. Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

The main algorithm used in the study is described in Methods and Supplementary Information. The remaining analyses were performed using MS Excel spreadsheets; therefore, no additional custom code is available. The RStudio (v.2023.06.1) scripts used to generate selected figures are available from Zenodo via https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16986729 (ref. 78).

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Acknowledgements

M.C.R. and C.G. are funded by Cariplo Foundation (SUSFEED project 0737 CUP D49H170000300007), Regione Lombardia (RUD0CONV01/ASSO project D44I20002000002) and the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005) within the RETURN Extended Partnership. L.Z. is funded by Cyrus Tang Foundation (K4050723175).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, DICA, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy

    C. Govoni & M. C. Rulli

  2. College of Soil and Water Conservation Science and Engineering, Northwest Agriculture & Forestry University, Yangling, China

    L. Zhuo

  3. Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling, China

    L. Zhuo

  4. Department of Nutrition, School of Public Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

    D. M. Marchioni

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  1. C. Govoni
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  2. L. Zhuo
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Contributions

C.G. and M.C.R. designed the research. C.G. performed the analysis. L.Z. performed the analysis on the Chinese trade. C.G. drafted the article. All authors conducted review and editing.

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Correspondence to C. Govoni.

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Govoni, C., Zhuo, L., Marchioni, D.M. et al. China’s animal-protein-rich diets are increasingly reliant on Brazil’s land and water resources. Nat Food (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01238-4

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