Fig. 3: Projection of flood risk for different social vulnerability groups under high emission scenario (SSP585).

a Cumulative average flood loss for three different social vulnerability groups (Low SVI, Med SVI, & High SVI) across coastal CONUS census tracts under shared socio-economic pathway SSP585. Linetype;dashed, dotted, & solid depicts median values across Low SVI, Med SVI, & High SVI respectively. Line color;gray & red represents historical and projected estimates respectively. Shading represents 5 to 95 percentile distribution for each social vulnerability group across all models. b Same as a for median active policies with shading depicting 25 to 75 percentile distribution. c same as (b) for housing density. d same as (b) for housing value. The difference between the projected estimates for each vulnerability group is tested with Mann–Whitney U test with significance level measured at P < 0.001(***), P > 0.05 (ns).