Fig. 4: Effect of increasing surge threshold levels on projected flood risk.

a Projected cumulative average flood loss for CONUS coastal census tracts for 2021–2100 under shared socio-economic pathways; SSP245 & SSP585 for modeled surge threshold (water elevation threshold) and increment of 1, 2, & ∞ m respectively. Shading depicts 5th to 95th percentile distribution across all models. b same as (a) for median active policy with shading depicting 25th to 75th percentile distribution. c same as (b) for housing density (d) same as (b) for housing value. Rows represent the current surge thresholds, +1 m, + 2 m, and +∞ m (i.e., no surge losses).