Fig. 1: Map of UK regions used in this study.

First, we demonstrate the influence of antecedent rainfall, wind direction and season in two larger regions: Midlands (blue—data from Midlands 1 and Midlands 2 is spatially aggregated), Southwest (red—data from Southwest 1 and Southwest 2 is spatially aggregated). Second, we demonstrate improved predictive skill for four smaller regions separately (i.e., Midlands 1, Midlands 2, Southwest 1 and Southwest 2).