Fig. 2: Influence of maximum wind gust (vX) and antecedent rainfall (R30).
Influence of \({v}^{X}\) and \({R}^{30}\) on fault numbers (\({F}^{N}\)) in the Southwest (a, c), and Midlands (b, d). Top row (a, b): scatter plots of \({v}^{X}\) and \({F}^{N}\), the horizontal blue dashed line marks the 95th percentile of \({F}^{N}\). Bottom row (c, d): probabilities of \({F}^{N} > {F}_{95}^{N}\) when conditioned on \({v}^{X}\) alone (black line) and when \({R}^{30}\) simultaneously exceeds its 95th percentile (blue line). Dashed red lines and shaded red areas show the median estimate and 95% confidence interval for the latter probability obtained by shuffling \({R}^{30}\) in annual blocks (see methods). Blue dots indicate statistically significant contributions of \({R}^{30}\). Yellow lines show the likelihood of \({v}^{X}\) exceeding various thresholds while \({R}^{30}\) exceeds its 95th percentile.
