Abstract
Land clearing in the Brazilian Amazon is strongly influenced by the economics of farming at the forest frontier. Here we examine how rising profits from second-season corn, grown after soybeans, may increase pressure on forests in the state of Mato Grosso. We assemble detailed annual data on crop prices, yields, production costs, land values, and forest loss, and construct measures of both per-hectare and regional-level profits from soybean and safrinha corn farming. Using statistical models designed to separate the effects of expected returns from the effects of profit-driven expansion, we show that increases in farm profits raise land prices and are followed by higher levels of forest clearing. These effects persist for several years after a shift in profits. Our results suggest that expanding corn production in frontier regions, by making farming more profitable, fuels land speculation and encourages the clearing of new land.
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Data availability
We used six primary datasets in this analysis. These data cover: commodity prices57 (S&P Global), production costs58,59 (CONAB), crop yields and area11,60 (CONAB), deforestation61 (INPE-PRODES), land values by use type62 (S&P Agribusiness/ANUALPEC), and corn ethanol production statistics63 (CONAB). All data were harmonized to the annual level, with prices and costs deflated to constant Q2 2024 values using Brazil’s GDP deflator64 (NGDPDSAIXBRQ). Detailed descriptions of each dataset, deflation procedures, and variable construction are provided in the Supplementary Information. Additional information on data sources and construction is included in supplemental information (SI). All data are publicly available.
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P.R. conceptualized, designed and wrote much of this manuscript; EA contributed significantly to research design and provided expert guidance on approach. The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the authors and do not represent any official U.S. Department of Agriculture or U.S. government determination or policy.
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Peter, R., Arima, E. High profits from soybean-corn agriculture are associated with increased land prices and deforestation rates in Mato Grosso’s Amazon forests. Commun Earth Environ (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03172-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03172-6
