Abstract
In 1976, the Motagua Fault along the North American-Caribbean plate boundary ruptured in a devastating M 7.5 earthquake. Despite its considerable scientific importance and its potential for catastrophic societal impact, very little is known about the seismic history of this major fault. Here, we show direct on-fault paleoseismic evidence for five ground-rupturing earthquakes on the Motagua Fault in the last 1,300 years that led to cultural and architectural adaptations. Radiocarbon ages of fault scarp-derived colluvial wedges, along with damage and repair at Maya and Colonial sites, provide constraints for three earthquakes during the 8th–13th centuries and two during the 18th-20th centuries, separated by a six-century interval of seismic quiescence. The research presented here provides new insight into the seismic character of the Motagua Fault and illustrates that earthquake recurrence on the fault is variable, allowing for improved estimation of current and future seismic risk in Guatemala.
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Data availability
Digital Elevation Models and orthophotos created from uncrewed aerial surveys of the La Laguna site can be accessed at Zenodo61,62. A georeferenced database of 35 mm slides, field notes, and annotated maps from the George Plafker USGS Archive of the 1976 earthquake rupture used in this study can also be accessed at Zenodo63.
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Acknowledgements
This project was conducted as part of the Guatemala GeoHazards IRES program that is funded by an NSF Grant OISE-2153715 to Niemi and by a DFG project 529303576 “Active tectonics of the Caribbean-North American plate boundary in Guatemala” to Grützner. La Laguna residents, Eva Angelina, Rocael, Ruben, Fidelino, and Fernando Pineda provided their generous help and permission to excavate the paleoseismic trench. We are indebted to Shane Detweiler and George Plafker of the U.S. Geological Survey for sharing field notes, photos, and other archival materials. We thank Stacey S. Martin, John Weber, an anonymous reviewer, and the editor whose constructive comments helped to improve the manuscript.
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T.M.N.—Interpretation of field stratigraphy and geomorphology, drawing and editing trench logs, writing the text. C.G.—Interpretation of field stratigraphy and geomorphology, drawing, interpreting, and drafting figures, writing the text. O.F.B.—Permission, field data. L.A.R.—Maya artifact identification. F.G.—LiDAR data acquisition and processing. J.M.—LiDAR data acquisition and processing. T.M.—scanning, digitally referencing, and relocating Plafker USGS Archive including 1:10,000-scale aerial photographs, black-and-white photographs, and 35 mm slides. R.D.—OxCal age model, text editing. A.D.—Trench logging and sample collection. H.E.— Digitally referencing, trench logging and sample collection. C.P.A.—Permission, field data. A.G.—Field logistics, field data. J.O.F.—Field logistics, relocating 1976 sites.
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Communications Earth and Environment thanks John Weber and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Primary Handling Editors: Carlos Vargas, Joe Aslin and Alireza Bahadori. [A peer review file is available].
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Niemi, T.M., Grützner, C., Flores Beltetón, O. et al. Five major earthquakes since the Late Classic Maya Period on the Motagua Fault in Guatemala. Commun Earth Environ (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03271-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03271-y
