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Kaplan-Meier and Cox survival analysis of fuel oil-contaminated Black Sea birds reveals potential conservation measures
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  • Published: 09 February 2026

Kaplan-Meier and Cox survival analysis of fuel oil-contaminated Black Sea birds reveals potential conservation measures

  • Sergey Gorbachev  ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-8096-13271 na1,
  • Olga G. Gorovykh  ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-5993-93792 na1,
  • Ashish Mani3 &
  • …
  • Abhishek Dixit1 

Communications Earth & Environment , Article number:  (2026) Cite this article

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We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.

Subjects

  • Behavioural ecology
  • Environmental impact
  • Environmental studies

Abstract

Tens of thousands of seabirds and coastal animals suffer from exposure to oily substances each year from oil product spills. Methods of bird assistance primarily include catching birds, removing contaminants from their feathers, and rehabilitation after laundering. Based on our practical experience in the treatment of birds contaminated with fuel oil, which was spilled into the Black Sea and the coast of the Krasnodar Territory as a result of an accident involving two tankers carrying 9200 tons of fuel oil, here we analyze the effectiveness of the traditional technology of cleaning birds with potato starch, followed by washing with detergents. Additionally, we collected dynamic data and applied Kaplan-Meier and Cox methods for stratification of non-survival risks in Black Sea bird species after washing and rehabilitation, respectively. Based on our experimental results and analysis, we consider the applicability of preventive measures to conserve bird populations, such as sound and kinetic deterrence.

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Data availability

All the data required to evaluate this study are available in the Supplementary Information Tables 1–3. Source data for the Figs. 6, 7 in Excel format have been provided as Supplementary Data 1.

Code availability

Our custom code for this study is publicly available at Github repository https://github.com/abhishekdixitg/blacksea-oilbird-risk and provided in Zenodo41.

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Author information

Author notes
  1. These authors contributed equally: Sergey Gorbachev, Olga G. Gorovykh.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Mathematics and Big Data, Chongqing University of Education, Chongqing, China

    Sergey Gorbachev & Abhishek Dixit

  2. Minsk City Technopark, Minsk, Belarus

    Olga G. Gorovykh

  3. Amity Innovation and Design Center, Amity University Uttar Pradesh, Noida, India

    Ashish Mani

Authors
  1. Sergey Gorbachev
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  2. Olga G. Gorovykh
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  3. Ashish Mani
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  4. Abhishek Dixit
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Contributions

S.G. and O.G.G. wrote the main manuscript text. The experimental part was provided by O.G.G. and A.D. S.G. contributed to formal analysis. O.G.G., A.M., A.D. performed analysis experiments. S.G. and O.G.G. contributed to revision of the manuscript to its final version.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Sergey Gorbachev or Olga G. Gorovykh.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

Peer review

Peer review information

Communications Earth and Environment thanks Mokarram, Marzieh and Paweł Tysiąc for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Primary Handling Editor: Nandita Basu. [A peer review file is available].

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Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Transparent Peer Review file

Supplementary Information

Description of Additional Supplementary File

Supplementary Data 1

Reporting Summary

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Gorbachev, S., Gorovykh, O.G., Mani, A. et al. Kaplan-Meier and Cox survival analysis of fuel oil-contaminated Black Sea birds reveals potential conservation measures. Commun Earth Environ (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03274-9

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  • Received: 24 July 2025

  • Accepted: 28 January 2026

  • Published: 09 February 2026

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03274-9

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