Fig. 5: Panel figure showing model parameter results for participant belief about the noise.

A shows a comparison between participant estimates, and estimates made via the model simulations, across blocks. The x axis displays the trial number for each block. The y axis shows the screen position scale. Here, 0 indicates the middle of the screen, while positive and minus figures show the right- and left-hand sides of the screen, respectively. In this way, mean estimates (rover positions) and noise estimates (beam widths) can both be displayed as positions on the screen. Median participant estimates of the mean, i.e. rover positions, are indicated by the black solid lines. Median simulated estimates of the mean based on the JGET HGF model are shown in orange. The median participant’s noise estimate (beam width) for each trial is shown using the width of the screen in black/grey. The median simulated noise estimate is shown as a width in orange. B shows the pattern of noise belief parameter change across blocks. C shows noise belief parameter change across blocks, split by psychometric-schizotypy group (high and low).