Table 1 Scenario settings for food production on Loess Plateau

Baseline

Actual climate and production conditions in 2020

Avg. temp: 14.3 °C, precipitation: 740.9 mm, wind level: 4, double cropping system (winter wheat–spring maize), 4 irrigations/year, 141.2 kg/cap grain.

S1

Climate change (SSP245, 2050)

Avg. temp increase: 1.58 °C; warming and drying trend likely to shorten growing season.

S2

Reduced irrigation frequency in normal flow years

Based on S1, irrigation reduced to 2 times/year under normal flow.

S3

Rainfed irrigation in high-flow years

Based on S1, no irrigation during high-flow years.

S4

Upgraded to drip irrigation

Based on S1, replace irrigation method with drip irrigation.

S5

Upgraded to sprinkler irrigation

Based on S1, replace irrigation method with sprinkler irrigation.

S6

Reduced irrigation with conservation tillage

Based on S2, implement conservation tillage practices.

S7

Drip irrigation with conservation tillage

Based on S6, switch to drip irrigation.

S8

Sprinkler irrigation with conservation tillage

Based on S6, switch to sprinkler irrigation.

S9

FAO dietary recommendation A

Based on S1, per capita grain intake reduced to 108.7 kg/year.

S10

FAO dietary recommendation B

Based on S1, per capita grain intake reduced to 80.5 kg/year.

S11

FAO dietary recommendation C

Based on S1, per capita grain intake reduced to 65.0 kg/year.

S12

Land consolidation and management improvements

Enhance micro-topography & infiltration; modestly increase root-zone water storage and irrigation efficiency.

S13

Combined adaptation: dietary change + upgraded irrigation + land consolidation

Based on S7 + S11 + S12.