Policy Brief

Future exposure to coastal flooding in China is driven more by growing populations and economic activity rather than by rising seas and intensifying storm surges. Policymakers must anticipate these multiple risk drivers to better inform spatial planning and development strategies and to ensure effective, sustainable coastal adaptation.

Current European Union policies are insufficient to achieve residential heating decarbonization targets. Substantial subsidies for heat pumps and carefully targeted incentives for home renovation are critical to efficiently and affordably meet climate goals. We emphasize the importance of adapting strategies to national contexts.

Many governments have adopted policies to reduce fossil fuel subsidies, but these policies almost always fail within three years. Policymakers should find new strategies to trim subsidies and promote renewable energy without triggering political backlash.

Oceans are on the frontline of an array of new marine–climate actions that are both poorly understood and under-regulated. Development and deployment of these interventions is outpacing governance readiness to address risks and ensure responsible transformation and effective action.

The interactions between mitigation policies could hinder China’s progress toward carbon neutrality by limiting the space for effective policy implementation. Policymakers should emphasize optimizing the combination of these policies to ensure efficient decarbonization.

Relaxing fertility policies and delaying retirement age would increase China’s household carbon footprint mainly by boosting population and labour. Policymakers should synergize policies targeting population ageing and climate change, which are both crucial for sustainable development.

Eliminating government infrastructure spending, public disaster insurance and post-disaster aid in high-risk coastal areas reduces development there and leads to lower flood damages and higher property values on nearby lands. The strategic withdrawal of development incentives could be used more broadly to reduce climate risks.

Inadequate information in national adaptation policies limits the ability to track national adaptation progress in Africa. Enhancing coverage, consistency and robustness of these policies offers a clear path to establish effective, nationally led adaptation-tracking infrastructure.

Meeting the Paris Agreement targets requires deep emissions reductions supported by a scale-up in carbon dioxide removal. However, current country-reported mitigation pledges are off track to meet carbon dioxide removal needs, unless countries dramatically reduce emissions consistent with low-energy-demand scenarios.

Current model-based financial regulations favour carbon-intensive investments. This is likely to disincentivize banks from investing in new low-carbon assets, impairing the transition to net zero. Financial regulators and policymakers should consider how this bias may impact financial system stability and broader societal objectives.

The worldwide trend of decreasing corporate tax in recent years has contributed to an increase in global carbon emissions, but implementing a global minimum tax rate of 15% could partially mitigate this impact. Policymakers should coordinate corporate tax policies with climate regulations.

Funding large-scale negative emissions through a carbon market designed for traditional emission reduction strategies risks exacerbating long-term economic inequality. We suggest exploring alternative financing mechanisms that address this concern and that still ensure decarbonization at reasonable costs.

Climate policy adoption in one country increases the probability of adoption in neighbouring countries. Governments can thus support global climate action by adopting a leadership role in climate policy and do not need to worry about freeriding behaviour.

Under current land-use regulation, carbon dioxide emissions from biofuel production exceed those from fossil diesel combustion. Therefore, international agreements need to ensure the effective and globally comprehensive protection of natural land before modern bioenergy can effectively contribute to achieving carbon neutrality.

A large gap exists between the concerns over the risks of climate change and the support needed for effective climate actions. We show that participating in a market where individuals make predictions on future climate outcomes and earn money can change climate attitudes, behaviour and knowledge.

Achieving net zero means balancing remaining emissions with carbon removal, and understanding the nature and scope of residual emissions is key to planning decarbonized energy and industrial systems. However, our analysis of long-term climate strategies shows that many governments lack clear projections for residual emissions at net zero.

Removing fossil fuel subsidies is important for mitigation and making carbon pricing polices effective. We find that removing subsidies on fossil fuels may not generate more public resistance (or support) than introducing a carbon tax, and by specifying alternatives for revenue recycling, the level of acceptability may increase.

High uncertainty exists in the projected climate change impacts on the Nile’s economies and water-dependent sectors. Under these uncertainties, managing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam cooperatively and adaptively can produce economic and water management benefits for Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt.

Increasing climate ambition through 2030 will be crucial to limiting global peak temperature changes this century. Countries need to ratchet their 2030 pledges made in Glasgow to reduce temperature overshoot and consequently reduce the risks of irreversible and adverse consequences to natural and human systems.

Reforms are required to maintain a healthy and robust flood insurance market under future climate conditions for the United States. Therefore, policymakers should implement premiums that reflect flood risk and incentivize household-level risk reduction, complemented with regional flood adaptation investments.