Probability of Life

Abstract

PROF. H. F. BLUM has given reasons for believing that the probability of the development of life up to the present human cultural level on our planet is unlikely to exceed 10⁻¹⁸ (ref. 1). His arguments may well be valid if they are supposed to apply to our specific civilization with its Ford cars and hybrid maize and antifluoridation societies. There is, however, a simple fallacy involved when Prof. Blum suggests that this minute figure should “give our imagination pause in peopling the universe with living things, particularly with ‘intelligent’ life approaching closely the characteristics of men”.