Despite the appearance of analytical rigour, IIASA's widely acclaimed global energy projections are highly unstable and based on informal guesswork. This results from inadequate peer review and quality control, raising questions about political bias in scientific analysis.
Enjoying our latest content?
Log in or create an account to continue
- Access the most recent journalism from Nature's award-winning team
- Explore the latest features & opinion covering groundbreaking research
or
References
Häfele, W. Science 209, 174–182 (1980).
Häfele, W. Futures 12, 18 (1980).
Nature 290, 349–350 (1981).
Sassin, W. Sci. Am. 243(3), 107–117 (1980).
New York Times, Editorial, 25 March, 1981, p. A26.
Christian Science Monitor, 11 March, 1981.
Keepin, B. Policy Sciences 17, 199–275 (1984).
Wynne, B. Policy Sciences 17, 277–320 (1984).
von Hippel, F. Physics Today July, 34–41 (1981).
Energy Systems Program (IIASA), Energy in a Finite World, Vols 1 & 2 (Ballinger, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1981).
McDonald, A. Energy in a Finite World: Executive Summary, IIASA Executive Report ER-81-4 (1981).
Perry, A.M. in Carbon Dioxide Review: 1982, (ed. Clark, W.C.) 343–346 (Oxford University Press, New York, 1982).
Phys. Technol. 12, 228 and 270 (1981).
Energy World 83, July, 3 (1981).
Nucl. Energy 20, 276–277 (1981).
Häfele, W. IIASA Rep. 3, 49–68 (1981).
Brown, G.E. Interfaces 12, 119–125 (1982).
Ausubel, J. & Nordhaus, W.D. in Changing Climate, 153–191 (US National Academy of Sciences, 1983).
Said, A. & Pochman, W. OPEC Review, Vol. VIII, 1 (1984).
Jaeger, J. Climate and Energy Systems (Wiley. London, 1984).
Chadwick, M.J. & Lindman, N. Environmental Implications of Expanded Coal Utilization (Pergamon, Oxford, 1982).
Energy Systems Program (IIASA), The IIASA Set of Energy Models: Documentation of the Global Runs, Prepublication Issue, IIASA (1982).
Schrattenholzer, L. The Energy Supply Model MESSAGE, RR-81-31, IIASA (1981).
Häfele, W. Energy J. 2, 35–42 (1981).
Nordhaus, W.D. & Yohe, G.W. in Changing Climate, 87–152, US National Academy of Sciences, (1983).
Freedman, D. J. Bus. Econ. Stat, 1 (1), 24–36 (1983).
Häfele, W. Lecture presented at IIASA Energy Workshop, Laxenburg, Austria, June 15, 1983.
Häfele, W. in Nuclear Technologies in a Sustainable Energy System, 3–20, G.S. Bauer and A. McDonald, Eds. Springer, Berlin (1983).
Konno, H., Srinivasan, T.N. The Häfele-Manne Model of Reactor Strategies: Some Sensitivity Analysis, RM-74-19, IIASA (1974).
Suzuki, A. & Schrattenholzer, L. Sensitivity Analysis on Hydrogen Utilization Factor of the Häfele-Manne Model, RM-74-30, IIASA (1974).
Suzuki, A. An Extension of the Häfele-Manne Model for Assessing Strategies for a Transition from Fossil Fuel to Nuclear and Solar Alternatives, RR-75-47, IIASA (1975).
Ho, J.K. Holistic Preference Evaluation in Multiple Criteria Optimization, BNL-25656, AMD-818 (Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, (1979).
Sassin, W., Hölzl, A., Rogner, H.H. & Schrattenholzer, L. Fueling Europe in the Future: The Long-Term Energy Problem in the EC Countries, RR-83-9 (IIASA, 1983).
Rose, D.J., Miller, M.M. & Agnew, C. Global Energy Futures and CO2 — Induced Climate Change, MITEL 83–015, (MIT Energy Laboratory, 1983).
Goldemberg, J., Reddy, A.K.N., Johansson, T.B. & Williams, R.H. Energy for a Sustainable World (in the press).
Landsberg, H.H. in Carbon Dioxide Review: 1982 (ed. Clark, W.C.) (Oxford University Press (1982).
Thompson, M. Policy Sciences 17, 321–339 (1984).
Walters, C.J. Adaptive Management of Renewable Resources (Macmillan, in the press).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Keepin, B., Wynne, B. Technical analysis of IIASA energy scenarios. Nature 312, 691–695 (1984). https://doi.org/10.1038/312691a0
Issue date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/312691a0
This article is cited by
-
Socio-political feasibility of coal power phase-out and its role in mitigation pathways
Nature Climate Change (2023)
-
Expanded modelling scenarios to understand the role of offshore wind in decarbonizing the United States
Nature Energy (2023)
-
A Multidimensional Approach in International Comparative Policy Analysis Based on Demographic Projections
Population Research and Policy Review (2013)
-
Communicating uncertainty in the IPCC’s greenhouse gas emissions scenarios
Climatic Change (2007)
-
Policy and global change research
Climatic Change (1996)