Table 1 United Kingdom screening parameter model inputs

From: Estimating the long-term impact of a prophylactic human papillomavirus 16/18 vaccine on the burden of cervical cancer in the UK

Screening patterns

Value

Reference

Start and stop age (years)

20–65

Department of Health Bulletin (2004)

Screening coverage

 % Screened every 3 years (dependent on age)

33–73

Department of Health Bulletin (2004)

 % Never screened in lifetime

7

 

Test characteristics

 Cytology – sensitivity (specificity)

0.41–0.67 (0.966)

 

 Probability of accurate biopsy CIN diagnosis

0.536

Cuzick et al (1995); Hopman et al (1998); Mitchell et al (1998)

 Probability of biopsy underdiagnosed CIN lesion

0.2

 

 Probability of biopsy overdiagnosed CIN lesion

0.263

 

 Colposcopy – sensitivity (specificity)

0.96 (0.48)

 

Screening practices

 Borderline dyskaryosis to triage cytology, (colposcopy) (%)

80 (20)

 

 Mild dyskaryosis to triage cytology, (colposcopy) (%)

58 (42)

Department of Health Bulletin (2004)

 ⩾Moderate dyskaryosis to colposcopy (%)

100

 

 Negative triage cytology to regular screening (repeat test) (%)

84 (16)

Assumption/(NHS, 2004)

 Positive triage cytology to colposcopy (%)

100

 

 Negative colposcopy/biopsy to regular screening (%)

50

 

 Negative colposcopy/biopsy to increased screening (%)

50

 

 CIN 1 diagnosis to increased screening, (treatment) (%)

50 (50)

 

 CIN 2 or 3 diagnoses to treatment (%)

100

 
  1. CIN = cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; Cytology sensitivity = probability of abnormal cytology given true state is CIN 1+. The model includes probability of abnormal cytology according to lesion type (i.e., CIN 1 to CIN 3) and therefore a range of values is provided; cytology specificity = probability of normal cytology given true state is negative for lesions.
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