Anthropocene briefing: China accused of rogue chemical emissions

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Earth will breach 1.5 °C sooner than thought

Earth is moving towards 1.5 °C of warming twice as fast as originally thought — and could breach the Paris climate agreement’s aspirational limit by 2029, rather than the mid-2030s. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change only included data up to 2020 when making its latest estimate. In their reassessment, researchers included record emissions and warming over the past three years and effects of other factors that contribute to warming, such as the reduction in planet-shading aerosol pollution. “Every ton of carbon dioxide saved is all the more important because the budget is so extremely tight,” says climatologist Niklas Höhne. “Even if the multi-year average temperature increase exceeds 1.5 °C … every ton saved leads to less global temperature increase and therefore less damage.”

BBC | 5 min read

Reference: Nature Climate Change paper

Banks are investing in ‘carbon bombs’

Some of the world’s largest banks invested more than US$150 billion last year into 425 projects that cumulatively hold enough oil, gas and coal to run through what’s left of our carbon allowances four times over. These projects, dubbed “carbon bombs” by researchers in a study last year, each have the potential to emit more than one gigaton of CO₂ emissions. JP Morgan Chase, Citi, Bank of America, HSBC and Barclays are top funders. Most of the money is provided through general corporate financing rather than direct loans for fossil-fuel projects, but the profitability of oil and gas often diverts money towards extraction. “In a capitalist system, profitability is the most important current,” says sustainable-finance researcher Jan Fichtner. “You can try to swim against the current, it’s possible, but it’s very, very difficult.”

The Guardian | 5 min read

China accused of rogue chemical emissions

Evidence from atmospheric samples indicates that factories in eastern China are emitting a chemical that is 14,700 times as powerful as CO₂ at heating the atmosphere. Rogue emissions of a hydrofluorocarbon gas called HFC-23, commonly produced as a by-product of refrigerant manufacture, were discussed at the latest meeting of the Montreal Protocol this week. The 1987 agreement is hailed as one of the most effective international environmental treaties in history for its impact on halting the destruction of the ozone layer. “History suggests this will be taken care of,” says environmental litigator Durwood Zaelke.

Nature | 5 min read

Reference: European Geosciences Union

Features & opinion

Green methanol flagship hints at cleaner shipping

A new cargo ship, the Laura Maersk, is the first of its kind to use a green methanol engine. In this case, the green methanol is made with renewable energy and uses gas from decomposing waste in landfills. By using green methanol instead of standard oil, the ship could produce around 90 fewer tonnes of greenhouse gas each day. Cargo shipping is responsible for 3% of global greenhouse-gas emissions annually — about the same as the aviation industry. There is demand for green methanol from airlines and factories, but the market is still in its infancy. “There has to be an economic mechanism by which you level the playing field so that people are incentivized and not punished for using low-carbon fuels,” said John Butler, who leads a shipping trade association.

The New York Times | 8 min read

Kenyans sue government after floods

Communities living near Lake Baringo in western Kenya are suing the government for failing to protect them from the harms caused by flooding. Lake Baringo has doubled in area since 2010 as a result of extreme and incessant flooding, affecting nearly 400,000 people. Some residents have been forced to move; others are dealing with crocodile and hippo attacks made worse by the lake’s expansion. The lawsuit references a 2016 landmark climate law that obligates the Kenyan government to compensate victims of flooding. It is putting into question whether the flooding was caused by climate change, and therefore whether the government is responsible for helping these communities.

Science | 5 min read

A pioneer of ‘polluter pays’

Climate scientist Saleemul Huq was a leading voice in ‘loss and damage’ finance: efforts to get historically high carbon emitters to help pay for the devastation wrought by climate change in low-emitting countries. “Loss and damage isn’t aid,” he said last year, when he was selected as one of Nature’s 10. “When money is given as aid, all the power rests with the donor.” Huq’s efforts were instrumental in the agreement to develop a loss and damage fund at last year’s COP27 UN climate-change conference. Huq was also “the intellectual architect of what we now call Locally Led Adaptation,” writes climate-adaptation leader Patrick Verkooijen. He was “de facto the voice of the voiceless.” Huq died on Saturday, aged 71.

The Washington Post | 5 min read

Infographic of the week

Heavy metals, pesticides, overfertilization, nutrient runoff, salinity and drought are among the ways that people are damaging Earth’s soil ecosystem (shown in white boxes) — but there are biological solutions that could mitigate that impact (yellow boxes). (Nature, 43 min read). (J.K. Jansson et al./Nature Biotechnol.)