Climate change may have fewer detrimental effects on major crop yields in West Africa than previous projections forecast.Credit: BRAND X
New-generation models suggest that climate change may have fewer detrimental effects on major crop yields in West Africa than previous projections forecast, a study in Plos Climate shows.
The researchers analysed impacts of climate change on yields of maize, millet, and sorghum crops in West Africa using CMIP6 models applied for the most recent IPCC assessment report. Projected crop yield reductions from earlier models were replaced by “even large increases in crop yields when the effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is considered.”
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, under which the models are applied, is a global collaborative framework designed to improve knowledge of climate change. The researchers says the discrepancy is due to “significantly less warm and wetter future projections” in West Africa under the CMIP6 simulations.
“Such results highlight the large uncertainties that remain in assessing the impacts of climate change in the region and the difficulty for anticipating adaptation strategies,” said Benjamin Sultan, a senior scientist at the French Research Institute for Sustainable Development.
Sultan, whose work is focused on climate dynamics, impacts and adaptation in developing countries, said the study was motivated by the lack of impact studies of climate change in Africa with African authors compared to other regions of the world.
