Table 1 Model variables and sources
Variable | Base case point estimate | Range | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Acinetobacter baumannii infections per year | United States: 45,900 Globally: 1,000,000 | United States: 41,400–83,000 Globally: 600,000–1,400,000 | * |
Proportion of carbapenem-resistant cases | 50% | 15–75% | * |
Proportion of global population living in a developed country | 15% | 10–20% | * |
Resulting annual incidence of carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii cases | United States: 22,950 Globally: 75,000 | NA | ‡ |
Direct health-care cost of resistance per case in the United States (US$) | $16,947 | $0–$29,188 | * |
Percentage of health-care cost due to resistance recovered with effective therapy | 50% | 25–75% | Estimated |
Ratio of global health-care costs to US costs | 0.4 | 0.1–0.6 | * |
Excess cost of resistant cases per year (millions of US$) | United States: $389 Globally: $742 | NA | § |
Resistance cost recovered with pathogen-specific therapy per year (millions of US$) | United States: $194 Globally: $371 | NA | || |
Excess mortality attributable to ineffective therapy | 20% | 1–30% | * |
Excess mortality reduction with effective therapy | 50% | 25–75% | Estimated |
Average life years gained with effective therapy per patient | 8 | 4–16 | * |
Health utility score of a year of life gained for patient with a resistant pathogen infection | 0.6 | 0.5–0.8 | * |
Deaths per year due to resistance without pathogen-specific therapy | United States: 4,590 Globally: 15,000 | 230–6,885 750–22,500 | ¶ |
Number of lives saved per year with pathogen-specific therapy | United States: 2,295 Globally: 7,500 | 115–3,442 375–11,250 | # |
Net cost per life saved | United States: $15,265 Globally: $50,549 | NA | ** |
Net cost per life year saved (US$) | United States: $1,908 Globally: $6,319 | NA | ** |
Net cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) saved (US$) | United States: $3,180 Globally: $10,531 | NA | ** |
