Table 4 Results of water sampling and lead analysis from 100,000 homes, and sensitivity to detecting water lead spikes.

From: Repeated home drinking water sampling to improve detection of particulate lead spikes: a simulation study

Round

Number (%) of homes with first spike occurrence

Cumulative Frequency (%) of homes with at least 1 spike

Homes with undetected spikes

Cumulative sensitivity

1

2021 (2.02)

2021 (2.02)

29,699

6.37%

2

2949 (2.95)

4970 (4.97)

26,750

15.67%

3

2589 (2.59)

7559 (7.56)

24,161

23.83%

4

2353 (2.35)

9912 (9.91)

21,808

31.25%

5

2299 (2.3)

12,211 (12.21)

19,509

38.50%

6

2183 (2.18)

14,394 (14.39)

17,326

45.38%

7

2147 (2.15)

16,541 (16.54)

15,178

52.15%

8

2075 (2.08)

18,616 (18.62)

13,104

58.69%

9

1959 (1.96)

20,575 (20.57)

11,145

64.86%

10

2049 (2.05)

22,624 (22.62)

9096

71.32%

11

1912 (1.91)

24,536 (24.54)

7184

77.35%

12

1844 (1.84)

26,380 (26.38)

5340

83.17%

13

1857 (1.86)

28,237 (28.24)

3483

89.02%

14

1762 (1.76)

29,999 (30.00)

1721

94.57%

15

1721 (1.72)

31,720 (31.72)

0

100.00%

  1. Simulation: lower baseline prevalence and more conservative set of transitional probabilities.