Table 2 GVHD-related death within 6 months among all cases based on initial biopsy findings in analysis cohort and external validation cohort.

From: Multi-institutional development and validation of a novel histologic grading system for colonic graft-versus-host disease

 

Analysis Cohort (N = 191)

External Validation Cohort (N = 97)

# Patients

GVHD death (N = 26)

95% CI

P-valuea

AUCb

# Patients

GVHD death (N = 19)

P-valuea

AUCb

Apoptotic score [version 1]c

  No apoptosis [0]

22

1 (4.5%)

(0.8%, 21.8%)

0.02

0.651

0

0

1.0

0.505

  1–6 apoptotic bodies [1]

77

6 (7.8%)

(3.6%, 16.0%)

  

11

2 (18.2%)

  

  >6 apoptotic bodies [2]

92

19 (20.7%)

(13.6%, 30.0%)

  

86

17 (19.8%)

  

Apoptotic score [version 2]d

  No apoptosis [0]

22

1 (4.5%)

(0.8%, 21.8%)

0.002

0.692

0

0

0.76

0.523

  1–9 apoptotic bodies [1]

98

7 (7.1%)

(3.5%, 14.0%)

  

22

5 (22.7%)

  

  >9 apoptotic bodies [2]

71

18 (25.4%)

(16.7%, 36.6%)

  

75

14 (18.7%)

  

Crypt score

  No crypt dropout [0]

112

8 (7.1%)

(3.7%, 13.5%)

0.002

0.686

42

6 (14.3%)

0.05

0.660

  Crypt dropout [1]

47

8 (17.0%)

(8.9%, 30.1%)

  

27

3 (11.1%)

  

  Ulceration [2]

32

10 (31.3%)

(18.0%, 48.6%)

  

28

10 (35.7%)

  

Crypt score: modified

  No crypt dropout

112

8 (7.1%)

(3.7%, 13.5%)

0.0005

0.688

42

6 (14.3%)

0.03

0.649

  Focal crypt dropout

15

2 (13.3%)

(3.7%, 37.9%)

  

12

0 (0.0%)

  

  Multifocal crypt dropout

28

6 (21.4%)

(10.2%, 39.5%)

  

11

2 (18.2%)

  

  Diffuse crypt dropout

3

0 (0.0%)

(0%, 56.1%)

  

4

1 (25.0%)

  

  Ulceration

32

10 (31.3%)

(18.0%, 48.6%)

  

28

10 (35.7%)

  

Novel grade [version 1]c

  0

21

1 (4.8%)

(0.8%, 22.7%)

0.0005

0.705

0

0

0.07

0.628

  1

65

5 (7.7%)

(3.3%, 16.8%)

  

10

1 (10.0%)

  

  2

36

2 (5.6%)

(1.5%, 18.1%)

  

32

5 (15.6%)

  

  3

41

9 (22.0%)

(12.0%, 36.7%)

  

28

4 (14.3%)

  

  4

28

9 (32.1%)

(17.9%, 50.7%)

  

27

9 (33.3%)

  

Novel grade category [version 1]c

  Low (score 0–2)

122

8 (6.6%)

(3.4%, 12.4%)

0.0004

0.705

42

6 (14.3%)

0.14

0.621

  Intermediate (score 3)

41

9 (22.0%)

(12.0%, 36.7%)

  

28

4 (14.3%)

  

  High (score 4)

28

9 (32.1%)

(17.9%, 50.7%)

  

27

9 (33.3%)

  

Novel grade [version 2]d

  0

21

1 (4.8%)

(0.8%, 22.7%)

0.0002

0.719

0

0

0.15

0.604

  1

80

5 (6.3%)

(2.7%, 13.8%)

  

18

2 (11.1%)

  

  2

25

2 (8.0%)

(2.2%, 25.0%)

  

26

5 (19.2%)

  

  3

39

10 (25.6%)

(14.6%, 41.1%)

  

27

4 (14.8%)

  

  4

26

8 (30.8%)

(16.5%, 50.0%)

  

26

8 (30.8%)

  

Novel grade category [version 2]d

  Low (score 0–2)

126

8 (6.3%)

(3.3%, 12.0%)

0.0002

0.710

44

7 (15.9%)

0.29

0.600

  Intermediate (score 3)

39

10 (25.6%)

(14.6%, 41.1%)

  

27

4 (14.8%)

  

  High (score 4)

26

8 (30.8%)

(16.5%, 50.0%)

  

26

8 (30.8%)

  

Endoscopy findings (categorized)

  Normal/Subtle

124

12 (9.7%)

(5.6%, 16.2%)

0.002

0.657

87

18 (20.7%)

0.68

0.526

  Exudate/Ulcer

42

13 (31.0%)

(19.1%, 46.0%)

  

9

1 (11.1%)

  

Lerner grade (categorized)

  0–2

133

9 (6.8%)

(3.6%, 12.4%)

0.0001

0.707

41

6 (14.6%)

0.048

0.663

  3

26

7 (26.9%)

(13.7%, 46.1%)

  

28

3 (10.7%)

  

  4

32

10 (31.3%)

(18.0%, 48.6%)

  

28

10 (35.7%)

  

Other organ GVHD

  No

98

8 (8.2%)

(4.2%, 15.3%)

0.03

0.619

60

13 (21.7%)

0.60

0.541

  Yes

93

18 (19.4%)

(12.6%, 28.5%)

  

37

6 (16.2%)

  
  1. aP-values comparing death between groups using Fisher’s exact test for apoptotic score, crypt score, novel grade category, endoscopy, Lerner grade category, and other organ GVHD; Wilcoxon rank-sum for 5-level novel grade and 5-level modified crypt score.
  2. bArea under the curve from logistic regression models estimating the probability of GVHD-related death within 6-months.
  3. cVersion 1 of the apoptotic score; 0 apoptosis = 0, 1–6 apoptosis = 1, >6 apoptosis = 2; this version was utilized in the final version of the scoring system.
  4. dVersion 2 of the apoptotic score; 0 apoptosis = 0, 1–9 apoptosis = 1, >9apotosis = 2.
  5. N (row %) shown unless otherwise specified.
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