Table 2 Performance measures for a range of dichotomous risk score cutoffs.
Model | Threshold | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | NB | sNB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baseline | 0.05 | 0.99 ± 0.01 | 0.04 ± 0.05 | 0.14 ± 0.01 | 0.97 ± 0.04 | 0.09 ± 0.00 | 0.42 ± 0.01 |
0.10 | 0.84 ± 0.06 | 0.39 ± 0.06 | 0.18 ± 0.01 | 0.94 ± 0.02 | 0.06 ± 0.01 | 0.26 ± 0.03 | |
0.15 | 0.54 ± 0.08 | 0.69 ± 0.04 | 0.22 ± 0.03 | 0.90 ± 0.01 | 0.03 ± 0.01 | 0.12 ± 0.04 | |
0.20 | 0.33 ± 0.07 | 0.85 ± 0.03 | 0.26 ± 0.05 | 0.89 ± 0.01 | 0.01 ± 0.01 | 0.05 ± 0.04 | |
0.25 | 0.18 ± 0.06 | 0.93 ± 0.03 | 0.29 ± 0.07 | 0.88 ± 0.01 | 0.00 ± 0.01 | 0.02 ± 0.03 | |
0.30 | 0.08 ± 0.05 | 0.97 ± 0.02 | 0.31 ± 0.15 | 0.87 ± 0.00 | 0.00 ± 0.01 | 0.00 ± 0.02 | |
0.35 | 0.03 ± 0.03 | 0.99 ± 0.01 | 0.36 ± 0.31 | 0.87 ± 0.00 | 0.00 ± 0.00 | 0.00 ± 0.02 | |
0.40 | 0.01 ± 0.01 | 1.00 ± 0.01 | 0.31 ± 0.38 | 0.86 ± 0.00 | 0.00 ± 0.00 | −0.01 ± 0.02 | |
12-month | 0.05 | 0.96 ± 0.04 | 0.15 ± 0.06 | 0.14 ± 0.01 | 0.97 ± 0.03 | 0.09 ± 0.00 | 0.39 ± 0.02 |
0.10 | 0.78 ± 0.08 | 0.49 ± 0.04 | 0.19 ± 0.01 | 0.94 ± 0.02 | 0.05 ± 0.01 | 0.24 ± 0.04 | |
0.15 | 0.55 ± 0.08 | 0.72 ± 0.03 | 0.23 ± 0.03 | 0.92 ± 0.01 | 0.03 ± 0.01 | 0.13 ± 0.05 | |
0.20 | 0.38 ± 0.06 | 0.85 ± 0.03 | 0.28 ± 0.05 | 0.90 ± 0.01 | 0.02 ± 0.01 | 0.08 ± 0.05 | |
0.25 | 0.24 ± 0.06 | 0.93 ± 0.02 | 0.34 ± 0.08 | 0.89 ± 0.01 | 0.01 ± 0.01 | 0.04 ± 0.04 | |
0.30 | 0.15 ± 0.05 | 0.96 ± 0.01 | 0.40 ± 0.12 | 0.88 ± 0.01 | 0.01 ± 0.01 | 0.03 ± 0.03 | |
0.35 | 0.09 ± 0.04 | 0.98 ± 0.01 | 0.45 ± 0.18 | 0.88 ± 0.00 | 0.00 ± 0.01 | 0.01 ± 0.02 | |
0.40 | 0.05 ± 0.03 | 0.99 ± 0.01 | 0.50 ± 0.27 | 0.88 ± 0.00 | 0.00 ± 0.00 | 0.01 ± 0.02 | |
24-month | 0.05 | 0.97 ± 0.03 | 0.23 ± 0.05 | 0.15 ± 0.01 | 0.98 ± 0.02 | 0.09 ± 0.00 | 0.39 ± 0.02 |
0.10 | 0.79 ± 0.07 | 0.57 ± 0.03 | 0.21 ± 0.01 | 0.95 ± 0.01 | 0.06 ± 0.01 | 0.26 ± 0.03 | |
0.15 | 0.56 ± 0.07 | 0.77 ± 0.03 | 0.26 ± 0.03 | 0.93 ± 0.01 | 0.03 ± 0.01 | 0.16 ± 0.04 | |
0.20 | 0.40 ± 0.06 | 0.87 ± 0.02 | 0.31 ± 0.04 | 0.91 ± 0.01 | 0.02 ± 0.01 | 0.10 ± 0.04 | |
0.25 | 0.29 ± 0.06 | 0.92 ± 0.02 | 0.35 ± 0.07 | 0.90 ± 0.01 | 0.01 ± 0.01 | 0.06 ± 0.04 | |
0.30 | 0.20 ± 0.05 | 0.95 ± 0.02 | 0.38 ± 0.09 | 0.89 ± 0.01 | 0.01 ± 0.01 | 0.03 ± 0.04 | |
0.35 | 0.14 ± 0.04 | 0.97 ± 0.01 | 0.42 ± 0.14 | 0.89 ± 0.01 | 0.00 ± 0.01 | 0.01 ± 0.04 | |
0.40 | 0.09 ± 0.04 | 0.98 ± 0.01 | 0.45 ± 0.17 | 0.88 ± 0.00 | 0.00 ± 0.01 | 0.00 ± 0.03 | |
36-month | 0.05 | 0.96 ± 0.03 | 0.32 ± 0.05 | 0.15 ± 0.01 | 0.98 ± 0.01 | 0.08 ± 0.00 | 0.35 ± 0.01 |
0.10 | 0.74 ± 0.08 | 0.64 ± 0.03 | 0.21 ± 0.02 | 0.95 ± 0.01 | 0.05 ± 0.01 | 0.22 ± 0.03 | |
0.15 | 0.57 ± 0.07 | 0.81 ± 0.03 | 0.28 ± 0.03 | 0.94 ± 0.01 | 0.04 ± 0.01 | 0.16 ± 0.04 | |
0.20 | 0.42 ± 0.08 | 0.89 ± 0.02 | 0.33 ± 0.05 | 0.92 ± 0.01 | 0.02 ± 0.01 | 0.11 ± 0.04 | |
0.25 | 0.31 ± 0.07 | 0.93 ± 0.02 | 0.37 ± 0.07 | 0.91 ± 0.01 | 0.02 ± 0.01 | 0.07 ± 0.04 | |
0.30 | 0.23 ± 0.06 | 0.96 ± 0.01 | 0.41 ± 0.09 | 0.91 ± 0.01 | 0.01 ± 0.01 | 0.04 ± 0.04 | |
0.35 | 0.16 ± 0.06 | 0.97 ± 0.01 | 0.44 ± 0.11 | 0.90 ± 0.01 | 0.01 ± 0.01 | 0.02 ± 0.03 | |
0.40 | 0.10 ± 0.05 | 0.98 ± 0.01 | 0.42 ± 0.17 | 0.89 ± 0.01 | 0.00 ± 0.01 | 0.01 ± 0.03 |
