Table 2 Covariate effect in each transition-specific model.

From: A multistate model of survival prediction and event monitoring in prefibrotic myelofibrosis

Covariate

Transition 1: evolution in overt PMF

Transition 2: evolution in AML

Transition 3: death

 

HR (95% CI)

P

HR (95% CI)

P

HR (95% CI)

P

Clinicala

Male sex

0.91 (0.44–1.87)

0.790

0.34 (0.08–1.46)

0.147

1.66 (0.64–4.26)

0.296

Age >65 years

0.56 (0.25–1.30)

0.176

10.3 (2.33–45.6)

0.002

6.53 (2.38–17.9)

<0.0001

Anemiab

2.18 (1.01–4.72)

0.047

1.34 (0.31–5.92)

0.695

2.30 (0.88–5.37)

0.153

WBC > 15 × 109/L

0.91 (0.29–2.84)

0.870

4.80 (1.22–18.9)

0.025

3.49 (1.35–9.01)

0.010

Plt > 1000 × 109/L

1.96 (0.64–5.97)

0.236

0.47 (0.07–3.16)

0.438

1.21 (0.30–4.84)

0.786

Fibrosis grade 1

3.20 (1.08–9.41)

0.035

0.34 (0.09–1.29)

0.112

2.96 (0.82–10.7)

0.100

Spleen size > 5 cm

0.59 (0.17–2.05)

0.404

2.59 (0.66–10.2)

0.175

0.79 (0.25–2.53)

0.694

LDH > 1.5

1.58 (0.76–3.30)

0.221

8.13 (1.46–45.2)

0.017

0.84 (0.36–1.98)

0.687

Abnormal cytogenetics

1.60 (0.64–4.00)

0.310

6.92 (1.61–29.8)

0.009

1.84 (0.71–4.76)

0.209

Mutationalc

Driver

JAK2V617F

0.87 (0.04–17.4)

0.925

0.12 (0.02–6.00)

0.286

0.82 (0.07–10.2)

0.875

MPLW515L/K

0.93 (0.06–14.4)

0.955

0.52 (0.01–24.7)

0.740

1.91 (0.21–17.8)

0.570

CALR

0.91 (0.06–14.4)

0.955

0.13 (0.02–7.27)

0.319

0.36 (0.04–3.68)

0.390

Triple negatives

2.70 (0.10–74.3)

0.557

0.13 (0.00–10.6)

0.368

3.31 (0.23–46.6)

0.376

Nondriver

HMRd

3.15 (1.08–9.21)

0.036

–

–

4.62 (2.09–10.2)

<0.0001

HMRe 2

–

–

6.62 (1.11–39.3)

0.038

–

–

  1. All transitions assume a Weibull baseline function.
  2. HR hazard ratio, CI confidence interval, Hb hemoglobin, Hct hematocrit, Plt platelets, WBC white blood cell, LDH lactate dehydrogenase, HMR high molecular risk
  3. aMultivariate models also corrected for treatment effect (chemotherapy yes/no; antiplatelets yes/no; anticoagulants yes/no).
  4. bAnemia was defined for values of Hb < 12 g/dL for females and Hb < 13 g/dL for males.
  5. cMultivariate models best fitted with HMR or HMR 2 alternatively.
  6. dHMR, high molecular risk, points to the presence of at least one mutation in any one of ASXL1, EZH2, SRSF2, and IDH1/2.
  7. eHMR 2 means the presence of 2 or more mutated genes among the above. Two or more mutations in the same gene are counted as one.
  8. Significant P-values (P < 0.05) are indicated in bold.
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