Table 4 Comparison of the predictive performances of the ESS70+ versus published prognostic scores using the validation set.

From: A scoring system for AML patients aged 70 years or older, eligible for intensive chemotherapy: a study based on a large European data set using the DATAML, SAL, and PETHEMA registries

Cox model for Overall Survival (N = 505)

Hazard Ratio [95% CI] (P-value)

C-Index [95% CI]

R²D [95% CI]

FPR [95% CI]

M1: ESS70+

 

0.59 [0.57–0.62]

0.07 [0.03–0.12]

16/133 = 12% [7–19]

Intermediate risk [2–5]

1.59 [1.27–2.00] (p < 0.001)

   

Higher risk >5

2.42 [1.80–3.26] (p < 0.001)

   

M2: ALFAa decisional index

1.87 [1.52–2.30] (p < 0.001)

0.59 [0.56–0.62]

0.09 [0.04–0.14]

51/134 = 38% [30–47]

M3: MRCb prognostic index

 

0.57 [0.54–0.59]

0.07 [0.03–0.13]

85/133 = 64% [55–72]

Standard risk

2.71 [1.10–6.67] (p = 0.031)

   

Poor risk

4.27 [1.76–10.36] (p = 0.001)

   
  1. aALFA decisional index 1+ vs 0 (15).
  2. bMRC prognostic index: Standard risk or Poor risk vs Good risk (16).
  3. CI Confidence Interval, FPR False positive rate (rate of patients identified as high risk in the subset of those who survived).
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