Table 1 Summary of included studies
From: A systematic review and quality assessment of individualised breast cancer risk prediction models
Study ID | Targeted population | Risk factors (number of categories) | Discriminatory accuracy (AUROC)a | Calibration (E/O ratio)a |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BCRAT model | ||||
Banegas 2017 | Hispanic, 25–79 years | Age (2), Menarche (3), Previous biopsies (2), Age at first birth (3), First degree breast cancer (2) | US-born: 0.56 Foreign-born: 0.62 | US-born: 0.93b Foreign-born: 1.52b |
Boyle 2004 | Caucasian, 20–74 years | Age (n), Menarche (3), Age at first birth (3), First degree breast cancer (2), BMI (3), Alcohol (3), Physical activity (3), HRT (2), Diet beta-carotene/vitE (5), Diet fruits/vegetables (5) | 0.6 | 1.03b |
Chen 2006 | Caucasian, 35–74 years | Age (2), Weight (6), Breast density (5), Menarche (3), Previous biopsies (3), Age at first birth (4), First degree breast cancer (3), Atypical hyperplasia (2) | None | None |
Decarli 2006 | Caucasian, 20–74 years | Age (2), Menarche (3), Previous biopsies (3), Age at first birth (4), First degree breast cancer (3) | 0.59 | 0.96 |
Gail 1989 | Caucasian, 20–79 years | Age (2), Menarche (3), Previous biopsies (3), Age at first birth (4), First degree breast cancer (3) | None | None |
Gail 2007 | African-American, 35–64 years | Age (2), Menarche (3), Previous biopsies (3), Age at first birth (4), First degree breast cancer (3) | 0.56 | 0.93b |
Matsuno 2011 | Asian, 20–55 years | Age (2), Menarche (3), Previous biopsies (3), Age at first birth (4), First degree breast cancer (n), Ethnicity (6) | 0.61 | 0.85b |
Novotny 2006 | Multiple ethnicities, 23–84 years | Age (2), Menarche (3), Previous biopsies (3), Age at first birth (4), First degree breast cancer (3), First degree family history of cancer (5), Parity (n), Breast inflammatory disease (2) | None | None |
Tice 2005 | Multiple ethnicities, older than 35 years | Age (2), Menarche (3), Previous biopsies (3), Age at first birth (4), First degree breast cancer (3), Breast density (4) | 0.68 | None |
Zhang 2018 | Caucasian 30–64 years | Age (2), Menarche (3), Previous biopsies (3), Age at first birth (4), First degree breast cancer (2), Polygenic Risk Score(n), Mammographic density (n), Estrone Sulphate (n), Testosterone (n), Prolactin (n) | 0.65 | None |
Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium ‘BCSC’ model | ||||
Kerlikowske 2015 | Multiple ethnicities, 35–74 years | Age (n), Ethnicity (6), First degree breast cancer (2), Previous biopsies (2), Changes in breast density (16) | 0.64 | 5-years: 0.98 10-years: 0.95 |
Shieh 2016 | Multiple ethnicities. Age was not specified | Age (n), Ethnicity (6), First degree breast cancer (2), Previous biopsies (2), Breast density (4), Polygenetic risk score (n), BMI (n) | 0.65 | None |
Tice 2008 | Multiple ethnicities, 35–84 years | Age (n), Ethnicity (4), First degree breast cancer (2), Previous biopsies (2), Breast density (BI-RADS) | 0.66 | 1.03 |
Tice 2015 | Multiple ethnicities, 35–74 years | Age (n), Ethnicity (4), First degree breast cancer (2), Breast density (4), Benign breast disease (6) | 0.67 | 5-years: 1.04 10-years: 1.05 |
Vachon 2015 | Multiple ethnicities. Age was not specified | Age (n), Ethnicity (6), First degree breast cancer (2), Previous biopsies (2), Breast density (4), Polygenetic risk score (n) | 0.69 | None |
Rosner & Colditz model based on the ‘Nurses' Health Study’ | ||||
Colditz 2000 | Caucasian, 30–64 years | Age (n), Menarche (n), Age at first birth (n), Menopause (n), Age at subsequent births (n), Benign breast disease (2), HRT (n), First degree breast cancer (2), Weight (n), BMI (n), Alcohol (n) | None | None |
Colditz 2004 | Caucasian, 30–64 years | Age (n), Menarche (n), Age at first birth (n), Menopause (n), Age at subsequent births (n), Benign breast disease (2), HRT (n), First degree breast cancer (2), Weight (n), BMI (n), Alcohol (n) | ER+/PR+: 0.64 ER−/PR−: 0.61 | None |
Rosner 1996 | Caucasian, 30–64 years | Age (n), Menarche (n), Age at first birth (n), Menopause (n), Age at subsequent births (n) | None | None |
Rosner 2008 | Caucasian, 30–64 years | Age (n), Menarche (n), Age at first birth (n), Menopause (n), Age at subsequent births (n), Benign breast disease (2), HRT (n), First degree breast cancer (2), Weight (n), BMI (n), Alcohol (n), Estradiol levels (n) | 0.65 | None |
Zhang 2018 | Caucasian 30–64 years | Age (n), Menarche (n), Age at first birth (n), Menopause (n), Age at subsequent births (n), Benign breast disease (2), HRT (n), First degree breast cancer (2), Weight (n), BMI (n), Alcohol (n), Polygenic Risk Score(n), Mammographic density (n), Estrone Sulphate (n), Testosterone (n), Prolactin (n) | 0.68 | None |
IBIS model | ||||
Tyrer 2004 | Multiple ethnicities. Age was not specified | Age (n), Gen phenotype (6), Family history (n, relationship, age), Menarche (n), Age at first birth (5), Menopause (n), Atypical Hyperplasia (2), Lobular carcinoma in situ (2), Height (3), BMI (5) | None | None |
Other original models | ||||
Barlow 2006 | Multiple ethnicities, 35 to 84 years | Age (9), Age at first birth (4), Ethnicity (6), Menopause (2), First degree breast cancer (5), Previous biopsies (4), Breast density (5), HRT (3), BMI (5), Previous false positive or true negative screen result (2), Menopausal status (3) | Pre menopause: 0.63 Post menopause: 0.62 | Pre menopause: 1.00 Post menopause: 1.01 |
Eriksson 2017 | Caucasian, 40–74 years | Age (7), BMI (n), HRT (2), Breast cancer family history (2), Menopause (2), Breast density (4), Microcalcifications (5), Mases (n) | 0.71 | None |
Ueda 2003 | Asian women. Age was not specified. | Age (n), Menarche (3), Age at first birth (5), BMI (2), Breast cancer family history (2) | None | None |
Tyrer 2004 | Multiple ethnicities. Age was not specified | Age (n), Gen phenotype (6), Family history (n, relationship, age), Menarche (n), Age at first birth (5), Menopause (n), Atypical Hyperplasia (2), Lobular carcinoma in situ (2), Height (3), BMI (5) | None | None |
Wang 2014 | Asian, 35–70 years | Age (7), Menarche (2), Previous biopsies (2), Age at first birth (2), First degree breast cancer (2), Breastfeeding (2), Abortion (2) | 0.64 | None |
