Fig. 3: The theoretical probability of developing sporadic vestibular schwannoma (black, dashed curves) and empirical cumulative incidence (solid grey line) as a function of age.
The multistage model from Eq. (4) is shown with a black, dashed curve, and has parameters u = 4.48 × 10−10, the number of sensitive sites on the third hit nGFX = 2002, and rLOH = 2.03 × 10−6/yr. The dash-dotted curve shows the modelled risk of developing a schwannoma with LOH on 22q from Eq. (6); and the dotted curve shows the risk of developing a schwannoma with a pathogenic variant of SMARCB1 from Eq. (5). Confidence intervals for the model parameters are established in section “Uncertainties in parameters” and given in Table 1. The empirical curves were derived from incidence data in ref. [1] and corrected for mortality using life tables for the same period from ref. [43].
