Table 2 One-way sensitivity analyses of variations in base-case assumptions. Incremental benefits and costs are presented per person participating in the programme.

From: Updated cost-effectiveness analysis of lung cancer screening for Australia, capturing differences in the health economic impact of NELSON and NLST outcomes

Parameter	Value	Incremental cost $AU NLST/NELSON		Incremental benefit LYs NLST/NELSON		Incremental benefit QALY NLST/NELSON		ICER AU$/LYs NLST/NELSON		ICER AU$/QALY NLST/NELSON
Base case	Base case	1434	1606	0.0375	0.0668	0.0188	0.0409	38,250	24,050	76,300	39,250
Mortality benefit	+8%/+15%	1434	1607	0.0495	0.0988	0.0266	0.0616	28,950	16,250	53,900	26,100
Mortality benefit	−8%/−15%	1434	1605	0.0255	0.0350	0.0111	0.0202	56,250	45,850	129,200	79,450
Mortality benefit after the screening phase	0	1362	1483	0.0248	0.0494	0.0100	0.0295	54,900	30,000	136,200	50,250
Mortality benefit after the screening phase	Constant	1492	1676	0.0502	0.0843	0.0283	0.0536	29,700	19,900	52,700	31,250
LC HR	Upper 95% CL	1499	1730	0.0504	0.0893	0.0281	0.0563	29,750	19,350	53,350	30,750
LC HR	Lower 95% CL	1386	1513	0.0279	0.0500	0.0120	0.0293	49,700	30,250	115,500	51,650
All-cause mortality HR	Upper 95% CL	1415	1569	0.0321	0.0572	0.0152	0.0345	44,100	27,450	93,100	45,500
All-cause mortality HR	Lower 95% CL	1433	1609	0.0388	0.0701	0.0198	0.0430	36,950	22,950	72,350	37,400
Cost per LDCT screen	400	1723	1957	0.0375	0.0668	0.0188	0.0409	45,950	29,300	91,650	47,850
Cost per LDCT screen	200	1134	1240	0.0375	0.0668	0.0188	0.0409	30,250	18,550	60,300	30,300
Cost of LC treatment	x2	1621	1971	0.0375	0.0668	0.0188	0.0409	43,250	29,500	86,200	48,200
Cost of LC treatment	x0.5	1341	1423	0.0375	0.0668	0.0188	0.0409	35,750	21,300	71,350	34,800
Cost of stage IV treatment	x4	1179	1266	0.0375	0.0668	0.0188	0.0409	31,450	18,950	62,700	30,950
Cost of stage IV treatment	x2	1349	1493	0.0375	0.0668	0.0188	0.0409	35,950	22,350	71,750	36,500
Cost of false positive	+20%	1474	1613	0.0375	0.0668	0.0188	0.0409	39,300	24,150	78,400	39,450
Cost of false positive	−20%	1394	1599	0.0375	0.0668	0.0188	0.0409	37,150	23,950	74,150	39,100
Cost pre-diagnosis in the screening scenario	−80%	1378	1542	0.0375	0.0668	0.0188	0.0409	36,750	23,100	73,300	37,700
False positive rate	Upper 95% CL	1439	1609	0.0375	0.0668	0.0188	0.0409	38,350	24,100	76,550	39,350
False positive rate	Lower 95% CL	1429	1600	0.0375	0.0668	0.0188	0.0409	38,100	23,950	76,000	39,100
Follow-up CT rate	Upper 95% CL	1438	1611	0.0375	0.0668	0.0188	0.0409	38,350	24,100	76,500	39,400
Follow-up CT rate	Lower 95% CL	1430	1599	0.0375	0.0668	0.0188	0.0409	38,150	23,950	76,050	39,100
Overdiagnosis	Upper 95% CL	1452	1680	0.0375	0.0668	0.0185	0.0397	38,700	25,150	78,500	42,300
Overdiagnosis	Lower 95% CL	1420	1543	0.0375	0.0668	0.0191	0.0419	37,850	23,100	74,350	36,850
Time horizon	20 years	1434	1606	0.0342	0.0580	0.0166	0.0350	41,950	27,700	86,400	45,900
Time horizon	10 years	1434	1606	0.0232	0.0334	0.0090	0.0184	61,800	48,100	159,350	87,300
Stage shift	Upper 95% CL	1436	1611	0.0375	0.0668	0.0193	0.0421	38,300	24,100	74,400	38,250
Stage shift	Lower 95% CL	1431	1600	0.0375	0.0668	0.0184	0.0397	38,150	23,950	77,750	40,300
Stage “unknown” composition	100% Stage I	1442	1617	0.0375	0.0668	0.0207	0.0435	38,450	24,200	69,650	37,150
Stage “unknown” composition	100% Stage IV	1420	1585	0.0375	0.0668	0.0184	0.0402	37,850	23,750	77,150	39,450
Survival (incidence scaling parameter)*	Upper 95% CL	1568	1878	0.0375	0.0668	0.0212	0.0442	41,800	28,100	73,950	42,500
Survival (incidence scaling parameter)*	0	1396	1530	0.0375	0.0668	0.0182	0.0400	37,250	22,900	76,700	38,250
Selection criteria	PLCO_m2012	1562	1909	0.0483	0.0951	0.0270	0.0604	32,350	20,050	57,850	31,600
Selection criteria	USPSTF-2021	1401	1606	0.0296	0.0634	0.0125	0.0380	47,350	25,350	112,100	42,250
Utilities	Lower 95% CL	1434	1606	0.0375	0.0668	0.0178	0.0396	38,250	24,050	80,550	40,550
	Upper 95% CL	1434	1606	0.0375	0.0668	0.0198	0.0421	38,250	24,050	72,400	38,150
	Recovery of Stage I	1434	1606	0.0375	0.0668	0.0210	0.0460	38,250	24,050	68,300	34,900
Disutilities (screening, follow-up, false positives)	0	1434	1606	0.0375	0.0668	0.0266	0.0457	38,250	24,050	53,900	35,150
Disutilities (screening, follow-up, false positives)	x2	1434	1606	0.0375	0.0668	0.0147	0.0367	38,250	24,050	97,550	43,750
Smoking cessation rate (screening/no-screening)	1.2	1434	1603	0.0399	0.0701	0.0202	0.0429	35,950	22,850	71,000	37,350
	1.5	1434	1603	0.0432	0.0750	0.0221	0.0457	33,200	21,350	64,900	35,100
	2	1434	1603	0.0485	0.0827	0.0252	0.0503	29,550	19,400	56,900	31,850

CL confidence limit, HR hazard ratio, LC lung cancer, LDCT low-dose computed tomography, LY life-years, QALY quality-adjusted life-year, NELSON NEderlands–Leuvens Longkanker Screenings ONderzoek, NLST National Lung Screening Trial, USPSTF United States Preventative Services Task Force.
*Population-based 5-year lung cancer survival was used to estimate the number of lung cancer cases.

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Table 2 One-way sensitivity analyses of variations in base-case assumptions. Incremental benefits and costs are presented per person participating in the programme.

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