Table 2 Calibration and discrimination of 10-year risk prediction of EOC by the BOADICEA model using individual or different risk factor combinations in the entire cohort, by age group and in pathogenic variant (PV) carriers.
From: Validation of the BOADICEA model for epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer risk prediction in UK Biobank
Model | AUC (95% CI) | Harrell’s C-index (95% CI) | E/O (95% CI) | Calibration slope (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Entire cohort (N = 199,429) | ||||
Null (age-only) | 0.61 (0.59, 0.63) | 0.63 (0.61, 0.65) | 1.11 (1.03, 1.19) | 1.02 (1.00, 1.04) |
PRS | 0.65 (0.63, 0.67) | 0.65 (0.63, 0.67) | 1.38 (1.29, 1.49) | 1.06 (1.05, 1.08) |
QRF | 0.64 (0.62, 0.66) | 0.63 (0.62, 0.66) | 0.80 (0.75, 0.86) | 0.96 (0.94, 0.97) |
PV | 0.64 (0.62, 0.66) | 0.65 (0.63, 0.67) | 1.08 (1.01, 1.16) | 1.02 (1.00, 1.03) |
FH | 0.63 (0.61, 0.65) | 0.63 (0.60, 0.64) | 1.07 (0.99, 1.14) | 1.01 (1.00, 1.03) |
FH + QRF | 0.64 (0.62, 0.66) | 0.63 (0.61, 0.66) | 0.77 (0.72, 0.83) | 0.95 (0.94, 0.97) |
FH + PRS | 0.65 (0.63, 0.67) | 0.65 (0.62, 0.66) | 1.34 (1.25, 1.43) | 1.06 (1.04, 1.07) |
QRF + PRS | 0.66 (0.64, 0.68) | 0.65 (0.63, 0.67) | 1.00 (0.94, 1.08) | 1.00 (0.98, 1.01) |
FH + PRS + QRF | 0.66 (0.64, 0.68) | 0.65 (0.63, 0.67) | 0.97 (0.90, 1.04) | 0.99 (0.98, 1.01) |
QRF + PRS + PV | 0.68 (0.66, 0.70) | 0.68 (0.66, 0.70) | 0.99 (0.92, 1.06) | 1.00 (0.98, 1.01) |
FH + QRF + PRS + PV | 0.68 (0.66, 0.70) | 0.68 (0.66, 0.69) | 0.96 (0.90, 1.03) | 0.99 (0.98, 1.01) |
Women < 60 years old (N = 110,885) | ||||
FH + QRF + PRS + PV | 0.66 (0.63, 0.69) | 0.66 (0.62, 0.69) | 0.87 (0.78, 0.97) | 0.98 (0.95, 1.00) |
Women ≥ 60 years (N = 88,544) | ||||
FH + QRF + PRS + PV | 0.65 (0.63, 0.68) | 0.64 (0.60, 0.66) | 1.03 (0.94, 1.13) | 1.01 (0.98, 1.03) |
PV carriers (N = 1231) | ||||
PV | 0.73 (0.67, 0.80) | 0.71 (0.64, 0.79) | 0.90 (0.67, 1.21) | 0.96 (0.85, 1.07) |
PV + QRF + PRS | 0.76 (0.69, 0.82) | 0.73 (0.66, 0.80) | 0.77 (0.57, 1.04) | 0.91 (0.80, 1.02) |
PV + QRF + PRS + FH | 0.76 (0.69, 0.82) | 0.73 (0.64, 0.80) | 0.73 (0.54, 0.98) | 0.90 (0.79, 1.00) |
