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Global, regional, national differences and gender disparity in the burden of cataract: current trends and future projections

Eye (2026)Cite this article

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Abstract

Background

This research investigates cataract incidence patterns in individuals aged 60 and older, projects future trends, and offers insights to inform targeted preventive actions.

Methods

Data on cataract incidence were sourced from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease dataset. The study assessed links with the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), examined disparities, and employed frontier and decomposition analyses to uncover mechanisms of burden evolution. Trends across age groups, time periods, and birth cohorts were explored using an Age-Period-Cohort (APC) framework, while the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model enabled future burden projections.

Results

From 1990 to 2021, cataract cases surged globally, rising from 32.8 million to over 82 million. Despite this, the age-adjusted rate declined overall, except in low- and middle-SDI settings, where increases persisted. Disparities remain pronounced in less-developed regions, though the absolute inequality gap has lessened. Population expansion emerged as the primary contributor to incidence growth. Projections suggest low-income regions will bear a disproportionate burden, while high-SDI areas benefit from early screening and improved care. By 2030, cataract cases may reach 111 million, with stable age-standardised rates.

Conclusions

The global cataract burden is escalating, primarily driven by demographic shifts. Resource-limited countries, particularly China and India, will confront rising challenges. Region-specific strategies, especially enhancing access to eye care and surgery in underserved areas, are essential to curbing the future impact.

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Fig. 1: Global and regional burden of cataracts.
Fig. 2: An analytical study of the SII and CI in cataract-related health inequality globally from 1990 to 2021.
Fig. 3: Frontier analysis based on SDI and age-standardised cataract daly rate (A/B) and ASPR rate (C/D) in 2021.
Fig. 4: Socioeconomic disparities and healthcare challenges in cataract disease burden across global regions.
Fig. 5: Age, period and birth cohort effects on Cataract incidence by APC models.

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Data availability

The data used in this study can be derived from the GBD 2021 (Available at: https://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-2021).

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Funding

This work was project supported by Science and Technology Plan Project of Wenzhou Municipality (No. ZY2022018).

Author information

Author notes

  1. These authors contributed equally: Bianjin Sun, Qiheng Yuan.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Wenzhou Key Laboratory of Sanitary Microbiology, Key Laboratory of Laboratory Medicine, Ministry of Education, School of Laboratory Medicine and Life Science, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China

    Bianjin Sun, Qiheng Yuan & Meiqin Zheng

  2. National Clinical Research Center for Ocular Diseases, Eye Hospital, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China

    Siwen Chen, Gengzhong Chen & Meiqin Zheng

  3. Department of Clinical Laboratory, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China

    Yutong Kang

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  4. Gengzhong Chen
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  6. Meiqin Zheng
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Contributions

MZ, QY and BS designed the study, QY and BS wrote the manuscript. QY, YK, BS SC and GC collected the data and conducted the analyses, MZ and YL edited and revised the manuscript. All authors have approved the submitted version and agreed with the contribution declarations.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Yutong Kang or Meiqin Zheng.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Ethical approval and participant consent

The institutional review board of Wenzhou Medical University determined that ethical approval was not necessary, as the study used publicly available data. The research follows the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting for cross-sectional studies.

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Supplementary information

Country-specific prevalence in older adults from 1990 to 2021. (download XLSX )

41433_2026_4393_MOESM2_ESM.xlsx (download XLSX )

Temporal trends in global DALYs due to cataract from 1990 to 2021 based on linear regression (LM) and robust linear regression (RLM) analyses.

Health inequality analysis of cataract burden among older adults based on DALYs. (download XLSX )

41433_2026_4393_MOESM4_ESM.xlsx (download XLSX )

Temporal trends in global prevalence due to cataract from 1990 to 2021 based on linear regression (LM) and robust linear regression (RLM) analyses.

Health inequality analysis of cataract burden among older adults based on Prevalence. (download XLSX )

Frontier analysis of DALYs across countries by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), 1990–2021. (download XLSX )

41433_2026_4393_MOESM7_ESM.xlsx (download XLSX )

Projected convergence of cataract ASPR toward the global mean: observed (1990–2021) and projected (2022–2030) trends in selected countries.

Decomposition analysis of DALYs across regions by Socio-demographic Index (SDI). (download XLSX )

Decomposition analysis of prevalence across regions by Socio-demographic Index (SDI). (download XLSX )

Age analysis of prevalence across Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions. (download XLSX )

Period analysis of prevalence across Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions. (download XLSX )

Cohort analysis of prevalence across Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions. (download XLSX )

Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) analysis for projected prevalence through 2030. (download XLSX )

Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) analysis of projected prevalence through 2030 by sex. (download XLSX )

Global and SDI regional trends in Cataract prevalence and DALYs/YLDs from 1990 to 2021. (download JPG )

Global AS-DALY rates and ASPR of Cataract in 204 countries and their association with SDI in 2021. (download JPG )

An Analytical Study of the SII and CI in Cataract-Related Health Inequality Globally from 1990 to 2021. (download JPG )

Key Drivers of Cataract Burden Changes: Population Growth, Aging, and Epidemiological Shifts Across SDI Regions. (download JPG )

41433_2026_4393_MOESM19_ESM.jpg (download JPG )

Global, China, and India Cataract ASPR and population projections (A-B) and analyzing gender differences by age in 1990 (C/E/G) and 2021(D/F/H).

41433_2026_4393_MOESM20_ESM.jpg (download JPG )

Projects the ASPR and numbers of Cataract in (A) Afghanistan, (B) Bangladesh (C) Indonesia (D) Myanmar (E) Nigeria (F) South Sudan from 2022 to 2030.

41433_2026_4393_MOESM21_ESM.jpg (download JPG )

Projected convergence of cataract ASPR toward the global mean: observed (1990–2021) and projected (2022–2030) trends in selected countries.

Supplementary materials (download DOCX )

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Sun, B., Yuan, Q., Chen, S. et al. Global, regional, national differences and gender disparity in the burden of cataract: current trends and future projections. Eye (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41433-026-04393-5

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