Fig. 2

Our hypothesis of how the observed demographic changes in sugarcane borer populations were linked with historical events of Brazilian agriculture. Blue triangles represent the historical events. Orange triangles represent the estimated time of population contraction obtained by MSVAR. We placed the signal of population expansion of BOTTLENECK (yellow triangle) were it is more likely given the historical event of agricultural intensification. The dashed triangles represent hypothetical expansion (pink) and contraction (orange) given the widespread production of sugarcane during the colonization and the recent plantation of Bt maize