Table 2 Partial Mantel correlation and multiple matrix regression (MMRR) coefficients between genetic distance (Fst) and mean habitat resistance (IBR) and geographic distance (IBD) matrices

Model	Partial Mantel		MMRR			%GCMs
Model	R² (IBR)	R² (IBD)	βn (IBR)	βn (IBD)	R² (model)	%GCMs
Tristaniopsis collina
Full range
F_ST—IBR_CURRENT/IBD	0.649**	0.082 ns	0.032***	0.046 ns	0.789***	–
F_ST—IBR_HCO/IBD	0.701**	0.160**	0.014***	0.076 **	0.815***	75
F_ST—IBR_LGM/IBD	0.493**	0.225**	0.02***	0.147**	0.725***	50
F_ST—IBR_STABILITY/IBD	0.678**	0.017 ns	0.085***	0.009 ns	0.803***	–
Shield Volcano–North
F_ST—IBR_CURRENT/IBD	0.521**	0.200 ns	0.015**	0.043 ns	0.653***	–
F_ST—IBR_HCO/IBD	0.570**	0.174 ns	0.015**	0.035 ns	0.678***	100
F_ST—IBR_LGM/IBD	0.606**	0.002 ns	0.043**	>0.000 ns	0.699***	100
F_ST—IBR_STABILITY/IBD	0.599**	0.041 ns	0.083**	0.009 ns	0.695***	–
South
F_ST—IBR_LGM/IBD	0.391*	−0.067ns	0.012*	−0.009ns	0.318*	50
Tristaniopsis laurina
Full range
F_ST—IBR_CURRENT/IBD	0.610**	0.127**	0.073***	0.061**	0.768***	–
F_ST—IBR_HCO/IBD	0.617**	0.030 ns	0.072***	0.016 ns	0.771***	100
F_ST—IBR_LGM/IBD	0.596**	0.165**	0.030***	0.078***	0.762***	40
F_ST—IBR_STABILITY/IBD	0.631**	0.053 ns	0.152***	0.026 ns	0.778***	–
North
F_ST—IBR_CURRENT/IBD	0.069 ns	0.243**	0.005 ns	0.052*	0.320***	–

IBR is estimated habitat resistance for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO), current day (CURRENT), and summed across periods (STABILITY)
The regression coefficient (βn) indicates the strength of the association between Fst and the distance variable, and the coefficient of determination (R2) indicates overall model fit
Habitat resistances were calculated from the mean habitat suitability inferred from 10 Generalized Circulation Models (GCMs). %GCMs indicates the proportion of individual GCMS that yielded the same result as the mean
***P < 0.001; **P < 0.01; *P < 0.05; ns not significant

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