Table 1 The hypotheses tested.

From: A historical stepping-stone path for an island-colonizing cactus across a submerged “bridge” archipelago

Hypotheses

Mechanism

Prediction

Analyses

Acceptance

‘Bridge’ hypothesis

Some seamounts of FNC had suitable conditions for the occurrence of our ingroup during periods of sea level decrease.

The colonization was due to a long-lasting contact promoted by a stepping-stone bridge of emerging seamounts between FNI and the mainland.

Suitable areas below the present-day sea level will be available during periods of sea level as low as LGM.

Signature of foundation followed by a gradual decline of gene flow with mainland populations along time

Paleomodeling (MaxEnt, Random Forest, ANN)

Quantification of the transient-land bridges in FNC (PleistoDist R package)

Coalescent Analyses (ABC)

‘Model 1’ (Fig. 2)

Yes

Long-distance dispersal

Long-distance dispersal of few mainland individuals

severe short-term colonization of FNI, according to the classical founder event model

Absence of suitable areas below the present-day sea level during periods of sea level as low as LGM

Coalescent Analyses (ABC)

‘Model 2’ (Fig. 2)

Paleomodeling (MaxEnt, Random Forest, ANN)

No

Rapid adaptive divergence of C. insularis after the colonization of FNI

The new insular environment may play selective pressures in the colonizing population.

Signatures of divergent selection between C. insularis and C. fernambucensis

Outlier loci detection (BayeScan, PCAdapt)

Yes

  1. Predictions are presented for each mechanism, stating expected results, the main analyses involved, and whether our results supported the hypothesis. FNC, Fernando de Noronha Chain; FNI, Fernando de Noronha Islands.