Table 2 Results of internal and external validations.

From: Estimating immunity with mathematical models for SARS-CoV-2 after COVID-19 vaccination

 

Data

Accuracy (95% CI)

RMSE

Pearson’s correlation coefficient

Internal validation

Cross-validation: healthy medical workers (N = 657)

97.0% (95.2%, 98.1%)

0.430

0.841

External validation

Mie National Hospital: healthy medical workers (input data for 3.5 weeks; N = 165)

98.2% (94.4%, 99.5%)

0.508

0.709

External validation

Mie National Hospital: healthy medical workers (input data for 12 weeks; N = 165)

94.5% (89.9%, 97.5%)

0.484

0.819

External validation

JSDT: hemodialysis patients (N = 192)

83.3% (77.1%, 88.2%)

0.924

0.721

External validation

JSDT: nondialysis elderly patients (N = 100)

83.8% (75.0%, 90.3%)

0.979

0.553

  1. Accuracy = ((no. of patients whose 95% prediction interval included the actual value)/(no. of patients)) × 100 [%], and \({{{\mathrm{RMSE}}}}_t = \sqrt {{\textstyle{1 \over n}}\mathop {\sum}\nolimits_{i = 1}^n {\left[ {\log Y_{it} - \log \left\{ {{{{\mathrm{median}}}}\left( {\hat Y_{it}} \right)} \right\}} \right]^2} }\). The RMSE and Pearson’s correlation coefficient between log Yit and \(\log \left\{ {{{{\mathrm{median}}}}\left( {\hat Y_{it}} \right)} \right\}\) at 26 weeks were indicated for cross-validation, and RMSE and Pearson’s correlation coefficient at 24 weeks were indicated for Mie National Hospital and JSDT.
  2. JSDT The Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy.
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