Table 3 Baseline cases at the regional and global levels.

From: Modeling the potential health impact of prospective Strep A vaccines

UN regions

Scenarios

Cases (thousands)

Pharyngitis

Impetigo

Invasive disease

Cellulitis

Rheumatic heart disease

South Asia

1,2,5,6

997,239

1,992,706

139,217

211,562

612

728

7642

14,792

2893

10,741

3,4

1,014,494

2,027,050

141,670

215,255

623

741

7777

15,050

2939

10,907

Europe & Central Asia

1,2,5,6

316,919

633,687

44,127

67,156

193

230

3747

7211

249

654

3,4

322,505

644,834

44,909

68,342

196

234

3805

7324

249

654

Middle East & North Africa

1,2,5,6

314,558

628,787

43,838

66,679

192

229

2345

4266

928

2454

3,4

312,173

623,985

43,514

66,179

190

227

2330

4238

916

2422

Sub-Saharan Africa

1,2,5,6

1,517,327

3,025,939

212,901

322,443

942

1118

12,223

22,891

10,967

32,735

3,4

1,449,400

2,889,696

203,532

308,103

901

1070

11,673

21,846

10,478

31,289

Latin America & Caribbean

1,2,5,6

286,031

571,793

39,855

60,626

174

208

7949

11,387

1163

3235

3,4

297,851

595,385

41,511

63,136

182

216

8308

11,895

1204

3350

East Asia & Pacific

1,2,5,6

831,037

1,661,287

115,783

176,134

506

603

6386

10,512

1970

4811

3,4

862,246

1,723,558

120,157

182,764

525

626

6626

10,902

2038

4980

North America

1,2,5,6

150,714

301,372

20,984

31,937

92

109

7568

16,919

9

16

3,4

150,087

300,114

20,898

31,805

91

109

7538

16,851

9

16

Global

1,2,5,6

4,413,825

8,815,571

616,705

936,537

2709

3224

47,860

87,977

18,179

54,646

3,4

4,408,757

8,804,622

616,192

935,583

2709

3223

48,057

88,105

17,833

53,619

  1. The baseline cases (pre-vaccination) of Strep A disease burden (pharyngitis, impetigo, invasive disease, cellulitis, and rheumatic heart disease) is presented at the regional (United Nations regions) and global levels, based on 30 birth cohorts from year of vaccine introduction and for duration associated with the vaccination scenarios. Case numbers are split between those scenarios that have country-specific years of introduction (1,2,5,6) and those introduced in 2022 (3,4). The left column of case numbers relate to the 10-year durability assumption and the right column to 20-year durability of vaccine protection.
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