Table 3 Evaluation of the robustness and the quality of prediction of the model developed by Pasin et al.¹⁶.

	All trials	Phase I trials			Phase II trials
		EBL1001	EBL1003	EBL1004	EBL2001	EBL2002	EBL3001
Time of peak^a
Mean [95% CI]	15.0 [5.0; 21.0]	13.4 [11.6; 14.6]	14.4 [13.0; 18.2]	13.4 [12.0; 14.0]	14.3 [13.0; 16.3]	14.0 [12.4; 15.0]	16.0 [3.9; 22.2]
Number of timepoints^b
Mean [Min–Max]	1.09 [1.0; 2.0]	2.0 [2.0; 2.0]	2.0 [2.0; 2.0]	2.0 [2.0; 2.0]	1.0 [1.0; 1.0]	1.0 [1.0; 1.0]	1.0 [1.0; 1.0]
Predictions from 7 days post-2nd vaccination to the peak
RMSE^c	0.012	0.034	0.023	0.026	0.005	0.006	0.006
Coverage (%)	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Bias^c	0.002	0.018	-0.003	0.006	0.001	0.001	0.000
95% PI width	0.410	0.547	0.502	0.510	0.389	0.389	0.387
Short-term forecast from the peak to 1 year
RMSE^c	0.471	0.218	0.539	0.361	0.442	0.460	0.515
Coverage (%)	98.1	100	93.3	100	100	98.7	97.6
Bias^c	0.251	0.014	0.239	0.077	0.293	0.224	0.328
95% PI width	2.297	2.097	2.124	2.184	2.502	2.358	2.298
Long-term forecast beyond 1 year
RMSE^c	0.518						0.518
Coverage (%)	97.8						97.8
Bias^c	0.253						0.253
95% PI width	2.479						2.479

The model was estimated on Phase I data and individual parameters were assessed, for each participant of Phase I and Phase II trials, using observation from 7 days post-second vaccination (day 64) to the peak of individual dynamics.
CI confidence interval, PI prediction interval, RMSE root mean squared error.
^aTime delay in days (Mean [95% CI]) from 7 days post-vaccination (day 64) to the peak (first local maximum).
^bNumber of observations from 7 days post-vaccination to the peak.
^cCriteria calculated on the median of individual predictions.

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